Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 10:43:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 71% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +1.8% stable Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.58 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.35 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 71% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.01 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.94
- QQQ: $671.88 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $682.95
- IWM: $290.90 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.23
- VIX: 18.60 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.618%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.01 | 41.90 | 39.7 | $740.94 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| QQQ | $671.88 | 36.70 | 57.6 | $682.95 | Bearish | 5.16 |
| IWM | $290.90 | 44.00 | 0.0 | $294.23 | Bearish | 4.71 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.60 | 59.23 | 40.4 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| TNX | 46.18 β² | 61.67 | 17.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.80 | 47.49 | 24.8 | $371.67 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| DXY | 101.46 | 56.65 | 12.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.44 | 44.89 | 13.0 | $52.59 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 71.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 88.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 85.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 71.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 42.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $80.96 (5d: -6.8%)
- Brent Crude: $86.32 | Spread: $5.36
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.36/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.84
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.913 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.585 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.36 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.466 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,010,937.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,274,485.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $168.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.01)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,577B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,218 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 71%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: SLM β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=3712)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: MCO β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 45% (n=149)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: TT β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2184)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: DDOG β promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2184)).
- [INFO] Screener: SIGI β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 48% (n=40)).
- [INFO] Screener: SPGI β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2184)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: SOLS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2184)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.48%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23052.3 | Prev: 22804.5
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] DXY could complete this Wave with a $1.02 Handle [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dxy-could-complete-this-wave-with-a-102-handle-video-202607281413 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:13:03 GMT
[2] Euro: Pressured by softer ECB expectations - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pressured-by-softer-ecb-expectations-scotiabank-202607281410 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:10:50 GMT
[3] US CB Consumer Confidence Index eases to 90.8 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cb-consumer-confidence-index-eases-to-908-in-july-202607281410 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:10:16 GMT
[4] Uniswap Price Forecast: UNI tests 200-day EMA supply amid renewed retail demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/uniswap-price-forecast-uni-tests-200-day-ema-supply-amid-renewed-retail-demand-202607281404 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:04:22 GMT
[5] Why hot Australian inflation could reignite the Reserve Bank of Australia hike debate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/why-hot-australian-inflation-could-reignite-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-hike-debate-202607281401 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:01:53 GMT
[6] United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index below forecasts (10) in July: Actual (5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-below-forecasts-10-in-july-actual-5-202607281400 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:00:24 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost