Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 09:30:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.70 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 70% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.2% stable Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.37 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.95
- QQQ: $677.21 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $682.73
- IWM: $293.10 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.09
- VIX: 18.61 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.629%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.37 | 41.90 | 39.7 | $740.95 | Bearish | 1.58 |
| QQQ | $677.21 | 36.70 | 57.6 | $682.73 | Bearish | 1.95 |
| IWM | $293.10 | 44.00 | 0.0 | $294.09 | Bearish | 3.08 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.61 | 59.23 | 40.4 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| TNX | 46.29 βΌ | 61.67 | 17.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $369.78 | 47.49 | 24.8 | $371.64 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| DXY | 101.52 | 57.76 | 13.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.65 | 44.89 | 13.0 | $52.59 | Neutral | 0.63 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.29 (5d: -6.4%)
- Brent Crude: $86.68 | Spread: $5.39
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.89/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.43
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.918 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.382 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.476 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 302.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 210.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.70 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $0.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.37)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.52
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,577B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,419 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 70%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 18 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23052.3 | Prev: 22804.5
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Gold - Potential for the further drop [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-potential-for-the-further-drop-video-202607281314 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:14:28 GMT
[2] British Pound: Political risks and BoE stance shape outlook - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-political-risks-and-boe-stance-shape-outlook-rabobank-202607281310 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:10:45 GMT
[3] Land of confusion: Why the global bond sell-off may be far from over URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/land-of-confusion-why-the-global-bond-sell-off-may-be-far-from-over-202607281310 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:10:08 GMT
[4] United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 8.3% in July 24 from previous 7.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-up-to-83-in-july-24-from-previous-78-202607281308 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:08:45 GMT
[5] Trump downplays escalation risks while warning Iran against breaking agreements URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-downplays-escalation-risks-while-warning-iran-against-breaking-agreements-202607281303 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:03:36 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US and UAE partner to launch military AI task force Time: 2026-07-28T13:07:46.921Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran warns it will block Strait of Hormuz to firms taking frozen assets Time: 2026-07-28T13:00:45.849Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost