Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 19:49:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.490 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $88, watch for margin compression); DIX rising to 0.490 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, IFF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 38% (n=233) | 5d 31% (n=221)
- Screener Board Record: 69 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 112 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.03 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
- QQQ: $703.71 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
- IWM: $293.34 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $269.8
- VIX: 16.64 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.657%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.03 | 51.39 | 42.4 | $748.05 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| QQQ | $703.71 | 38.87 | 64.3 | $707.02 | Neutral | 1.36 |
| IWM | $293.34 | 42.79 | 0.0 | $269.80 | Bearish | 7.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.64 | 51.82 | 42.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| TNX | 46.57 | 72.53 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.07 | 55.33 | 29.4 | $370.94 | Bearish | 0.29 |
| DXY | 101.14 | 45.66 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.84 | 48.76 | 20.0 | $41.30 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $87.93 (5d: +11.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.46 | Spread: $7.53
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.896 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.437 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.323 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.533 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,068.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,744.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $747 (Spot: $746.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,966 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.490 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.533 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (746.11) dropped below ZGL (748.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: SN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 50% (n=866)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Earnings:
- GOOGL: EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (β19.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Iran warns of 'eye for an eye' response if US carries out Trump's threat URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-warns-of-eye-for-an-eye-response-if-us-carries-out-trumps-threat-202607222327 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:27:05 GMT
[2] Gold rebounds above $4,100 as buyers return URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebounds-above-4-100-as-buyers-return-202607222313 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:13:22 GMT
[3] Tesla and Alphabet results round up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/tesla-and-alphabet-results-round-up-202607222308 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:08:25 GMT
[4] USD/JPY near 40-year highs: Bullish structure meets intervention and positioning risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-near-40-year-highs-bullish-structure-meets-intervention-and-positioning-risk-202607222306 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:06:25 GMT
[5] A cooler inflation print buys British Pound Sterling nothing but a slower decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/a-cooler-inflation-print-buys-british-pound-sterling-nothing-but-a-slower-decline-202607222303 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:03:15 GMT
[6] South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-gross-domestic-product-growth-qoq-above-expectations-04-in-2q-actual-06-202607222302 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:02:52 GMT
[7] South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above expectations (3.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-gross-domestic-product-growth-yoy-came-in-at-37-above-expectations-35-in-2q-202607222301 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:01:30 GMT
[8] South Korean Won: AI-driven exports support KRW outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-ai-driven-exports-support-krw-outlook-commerzbank-202607222257 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 22:57:00 GMT
[9] Euro stalls as high energy prices increase Fed hawkish bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stalls-as-high-energy-prices-increase-fed-hawkish-bets-202607222238 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 22:38:55 GMT
[10] Chinese Yuan: Short-term consolidation with bullish bias against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-short-term-consolidation-with-bullish-bias-against-us-dollar-uob-202607222216 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 22:16:00 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] US Senate to vote on Iran War Powers resolution on Thursday Time: 2026-07-22T23:29:39.906Z
[2] Iranian attacks, Bab el-Mandeb threats require international response - GCC Time: 2026-07-22T23:21:36.955Z
[3] US House passes $1.15 trillion defense bill amid Iran war concerns Time: 2026-07-22T22:55:26.777Z
[4] US moves more forces to Middle East as Trump weighs expanding Iran war-WSJ Time: 2026-07-22T22:32:26.863Z
[5] Tanker hit by unknown projectile off Saudi Arabia - UKMTO Time: 2026-07-22T22:28:53.012Z
[6] US missile interceptor stocks depleted after Iran attacks, lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-22T22:21:25.264Z
[7] Kuwait air defenses responding to hostile drone attacks Time: 2026-07-22T22:11:31.715Z
[8] US forces launch 12th consecutive strikes on Iranian military targets Time: 2026-07-22T22:08:34.046Z
[9] Iranian drones targeted US bases in Kuwait, IRGC channel says Time: 2026-07-22T22:05:50.722Z
[10] Defense bill prepares US for threats from Iran and others, lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-22T22:00:06.377Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily β 23.3% of normal
- Throughput: 21.4% of normal (2.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 440
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost