Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 18:03:02 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $86, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 4.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, IFF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 38% (n=233) | 5d 31% (n=221)
- Screener Board Record: 69 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 112 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.11 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
- QQQ: $703.36 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
- IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.31
- VIX: 16.64 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.657%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.11 | 51.39 | 42.4 | $748.05 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| QQQ | $703.36 | 38.87 | 64.3 | $707.02 | Neutral | 1.36 |
| IWM | $293.77 | 42.79 | 0.0 | $295.31 | Bearish | 7.16 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.64 | 51.82 | 42.0 | $10.48 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| TNX | 46.57 | 72.53 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.79 | 55.33 | 29.4 | $370.94 | Bearish | 0.29 |
| DXY | 101.14 | 45.57 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.85 | 48.76 | 20.0 | $39.21 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 70.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $86.48 (5d: +9.5%)
- Brent Crude: $93.88 | Spread: $7.40
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.94/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.439 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.308 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.528 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,058.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,740.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $747 (Spot: $746.11)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,789B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,920B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,974 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.528 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +4.8B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (746.11) dropped below ZGL (748.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: SN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 50% (n=866)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: VTRS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 53% (n=2918)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Earnings:
- GOOGL: EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (β19.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] New Zealand Dollar stalls after hotter-than-expected inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-stalls-after-hotter-than-expected-inflation-202607222159 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 21:59:26 GMT
[2] Hyperliquid, Robinhood could lead crypto's next bull market as DeFi and TradFi converge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-robinhood-could-lead-cryptos-next-bull-market-as-defi-and-tradfi-converge-202607222140 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 21:40:34 GMT
[3] South Korean Won: Internationalisation roadmap supports won recovery - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-internationalisation-roadmap-supports-won-recovery-dbs-202607222137 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 21:37:00 GMT
[4] Australia unemployment rate set to steady at 4.4% in June, signaling strong job market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-unemployment-rate-set-to-steady-at-44-in-june-signaling-strong-job-market-202607222130 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 21:30:00 GMT
[5] Forex Today: US Dollar softens as oil and gold rally, ECB decision and Australian jobs loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-softens-as-oil-and-gold-rally-ecb-decision-and-australian-jobs-loom-202607222116 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 21:16:37 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran military source refutes CENTCOM statement on Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-07-22T21:57:03.244Z
[2] Missile hit point in provincial capital Bushehr, official says Time: 2026-07-22T21:52:31.968Z
[3] Houthis say Saudi oil tankers targeted for 'violating naval blockade' Time: 2026-07-22T21:42:45.029Z
[4] US missile attack reported near Ahvaz as blasts heard in Sirik Time: 2026-07-22T21:22:20.485Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 17.0% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 440
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS245 (+390% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost