Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 10:12:08 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.51 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 61% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, FHI
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 15% (n=233) | 3d 38% (n=221) | 5d 33% (n=212)
- Screener Board Record: 48 closed (hit rate 52%) Β· 113 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.48 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.6
- QQQ: $704.68 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $700.99
- IWM: $293.64 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.77
- VIX: 17.73 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.630%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.48 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $742.60 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $704.68 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $700.99 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| IWM | $293.64 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $294.77 | Bearish | 2.55 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.73 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| TNX | 46.30 | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.82 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.66 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 101.09 | 48.33 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.92 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $39.16 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 38.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.33 (5d: +5.9%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.69/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.38
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.91 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.509 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.526 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 489,077.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 587,217.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $80.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $745.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.09
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,816B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,927B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,729B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,738 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 6 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 68 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 14 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 12 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 13 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 12 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 13 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 12 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 12 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_settled_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 12 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost