Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 10:00:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.51 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 61% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.81 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.49
- QQQ: $704.04 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $687.05
- IWM: $293.50 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.81
- VIX: 17.87 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.630%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.81 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $742.49 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| QQQ | $704.04 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $687.05 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| IWM | $293.50 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $294.81 | Bearish | 2.74 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.87 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 46.30 | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.71 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.66 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 101.09 | 48.37 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.80 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $50.94 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.2% | 56/65 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 21/28 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 39/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 24/34 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 13/19 |
| Utilities | 63.3% | 19/30 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 41/67 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.1% | 28/57 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 10/24 |
| Technology | 38.5% | 25/65 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.80 (5d: +6.5%)
- Brent Crude: $91.48 | Spread: $6.68
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.00
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.38
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.91 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.509 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.526 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 405,913.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 517,479.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $68.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $744.81)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.09
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,741B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,398 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.61 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (744.95) reclaimed ZGL (742.67) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (744.98) dropped below ZGL (745.70) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iranian state broadcaster denies new attack on station in western Iran Time: 2026-07-21T13:47:21.279Z
[2] Kuwait confronts Iranian missile, drone attacks, sirens sound in Bahrain Time: 2026-07-21T13:43:22.568Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost