Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 06:01:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.13 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.55 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.66 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.9
- QQQ: $695.70 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.0
- IWM: $292.11 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.66
- VIX: 18.65 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.598%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.66 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $745.90 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| QQQ | $695.70 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $600.00 | Bearish | 2.46 |
| IWM | $292.11 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $295.66 | Bearish | 6.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.65 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 45.98 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.88 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $366.23 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| DXY | 101.00 | 48.03 | 27.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.00 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $33.75 | Neutral | 0.77 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 63.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.42 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.92 | Spread: $6.50
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.04/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.94
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.29
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.906 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.4 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.568 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.66
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,251,400.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,821,227.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $673.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $741.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.60%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,741B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,254 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.51 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~270h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~102h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] Hungarian Forint: MNB easing on lower inflation - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mnb-easing-on-lower-inflation-commerzbank-202607210940 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:40:59 Z
[2] Euro edges up to 1.1420 as Eurozone Economic Sentiment beats expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flatlines-above-11400-with-geopolitical-tensions-oil-prices-capping-rallies-202607210710 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:36:17 Z
[3] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607210930 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:30:36 Z
[4] Czech Koruna: CNB stance supports CZK against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-cnb-stance-supports-czk-against-euro-ing-202607210930 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:30:29 Z
[5] Oil: Escalation risks and Dollar support - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-escalation-risks-and-dollar-support-ocbc-202607210919 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:19:54 Z
[6] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 1.3400 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-tests-nine-day-ema-support-near-13400-202607210909 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:09:00 Z
[7] Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment improves more than expected to 26.3 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-improves-more-than-expected-to-263-in-july-202607210905 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:05:15 Z
[8] British Pound: Sterling trades in a broad range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-trades-in-a-broad-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202607210902 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:02:41 Z
[9] Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at 23.4, above expectations (11.2) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-came-in-at-234-above-expectations-112-in-july-202607210901 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:01:00 Z
[10] Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation above forecasts (-77.8) in July: Actual (-77.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-current-situation-above-forecasts-778-in-july-actual-776-202607210900 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:00:01 Z
[11] Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at 26.3, above expectations (18) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-came-in-at-263-above-expectations-18-in-july-202607210900 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:00:01 Z
[12] WTI Price Forecast: Struggles below $82.00 and one-month high; bullish potential intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-struggles-below-8200-and-one-month-high-bullish-potential-intact-202607210858 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:58:05 Z
[13] Indian Rupee rebounds as oil price rally hits pause URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gains-on-middle-east-peace-hopes-202607210536 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:52:12 Z
[14] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD reaches $59.00 amid hopes of new US-Iran negotiations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-reaches-5900-amid-hopes-of-new-us-iran-negotiations-202607210849 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:49:57 Z
[15] Copper: China tightness underpins prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-china-tightness-underpins-prices-ing-202607210848 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:48:27 Z
[16] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains sticky to 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-remains-sticky-to-20-day-ema-202607210845 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:45:44 Z
[17] Canadian Dollar: Trade dispute weighs on outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-dispute-weighs-on-outlook-commerzbank-202607210834 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:34:35 Z
[18] Dow Jones futures rise as diplomatic signals ease Middle East tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-as-diplomatic-signals-ease-middle-east-tensions-202607210821 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:21:03 Z
[19] Gold stands firm near one-week high on softer USD; remains below $4,100 amid Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rises-cautiously-as-fed-hike-bets-us-iran-tensions-and-bullish-usd-cap-gains-202607210346 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:20:40 Z
[20] Indian Rupee: Intervention and inflows counter Brent shock - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-intervention-and-inflows-counter-brent-shock-societe-generale-202607210818 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:18:23 Z
[21] Canadian Dollar recovers from one-week low vs soft USD; lacks bullish conviction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-recovers-from-one-week-low-vs-soft-usd-lacks-bullish-conviction-202607210812 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:12:50 Z
[22] Oil: Red Sea route risks and price outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-red-sea-route-risks-and-price-outlook-mufg-202607210804 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:04:36 Z
[23] Greece Current Account (YoY) increased to β¬-0.96B in May from previous β¬-1.389B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-current-account-yoy-increased-to-eu-096b-in-may-from-previous-eu-1389b-202607210800 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:00:49 Z
[24] UK PM Burnham's first fiscal policy pledge comes on trial URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-pm-burnhams-first-fiscal-policy-pledge-comes-on-trial-202607210757 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:57:55 Z
[25] Japanese Yen weakens against US Dollar despite easing risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-against-us-dollar-despite-easing-risk-aversion-202607210757 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:57:51 Z
[26] Swiss Franc ticks up, but US Dollar dips remain contained amid risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-ticks-up-but-us-dollar-dips-remain-contained-amid-risk-off-markets-202607210757 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:57:02 Z
[27] Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound as focus remains on Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-struggles-to-extend-rebound-as-focus-remains-on-middle-east-202607210743 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:43:44 Z
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Iran economists say war is turning malaise into crisis Time: 2026-07-21T09:49:42.502Z
[2] Araghchi interview draws fire from Iran hardliners Time: 2026-07-21T09:43:06.458Z
[3] Ben Gurion passengers told to prepare for flight disruptions - Kan News Time: 2026-07-21T09:39:38.564Z
[BREAKING] [4] Bahrain sounds sirens, urges public to seek shelter Time: 2026-07-21T09:34:33.458Z
[5] Iran authorizes online parliamentary sessions in crises Time: 2026-07-21T09:09:07.384Z
[6] CENTCOM footage on 10th night of strikes on Iran Time: 2026-07-21T08:52:19.981Z
[BREAKING] [7] Bahrain intercepts several Iranian aerial attacks Time: 2026-07-21T08:44:08.342Z
[BREAKING] [8] Jordan intercepts five drones launched from Iran Time: 2026-07-21T08:31:15.074Z
[9] Iran MP says government considering petrol price rise despite war and inflation Time: 2026-07-21T08:26:27.821Z
[10] Pakistan, Bangladesh pay years-high prices for LNG amid Iran war - Bloomberg Time: 2026-07-21T08:23:14.820Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 11 of 60 normal daily β 18.3% of normal
- Throughput: 11.1% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost