Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 04:00:59 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.13 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.55 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.66 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.9
- QQQ: $695.70 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.0
- IWM: $292.11 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.66
- VIX: 18.65 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.598%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.66 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $745.90 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| QQQ | $695.70 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $600.00 | Bearish | 2.46 |
| IWM | $292.11 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $295.66 | Bearish | 6.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.65 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 45.98 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.88 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $366.23 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| DXY | 101.00 | 48.03 | 27.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.00 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $33.75 | Neutral | 0.77 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 63.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.42 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.92 | Spread: $6.50
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.04/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.94
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.29
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.906 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.4 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.568 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.66
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,251,400.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,821,227.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $673.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $741.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.60%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,741B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,144 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.51 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~270h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~102h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (26):
[1] Japanese Yen: Pressured within 161.30-163.00 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-pressured-within-16130-16300-against-us-dollar-uob-202607210741 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:41:46 Z
[2] Indian Rupee rebounds as oil prices correct on Mideast peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gains-on-middle-east-peace-hopes-202607210536 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:25:47 Z
[3] Euro rebounds from multi-day low as carry trade undermines JPY; focus remains on ECB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rebounds-from-multi-day-low-as-carry-trade-undermines-jpy-focus-remains-on-ecb-202607210725 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:25:32 Z
[4] British Pound: Rally seen fading against Euro - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rally-seen-fading-against-euro-ocbc-202607210722 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:22:54 Z
[5] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Further upside likely towards 0.7100 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-further-upside-likely-towards-07100-202607210716 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:16:00 Z
[6] Euro flatlines above 1.1400 with geopolitical tensions, Oil prices capping rallies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flatlines-above-11400-with-geopolitical-tensions-oil-prices-capping-rallies-202607210710 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:10:18 Z
[7] Equities: Geopolitics weigh on stocks - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-geopolitics-weigh-on-stocks-deutsche-bank-202607210658 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:58:11 Z
[8] New Zealand Dollar gathers strength above 0.5850 as CPI inflation data bolster RBNZ rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gathers-strength-above-05850-as-cpi-inflation-data-bolster-rbnz-rate-hike-bets-202607210655 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:55:07 Z
[9] Gold jumps to nearly one-week top as Iran diplomacy hopes undermine USD despite Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rises-cautiously-as-fed-hike-bets-us-iran-tensions-and-bullish-usd-cap-gains-202607210346 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:42:34 Z
[10] Brent: Geopolitics weigh on prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitics-weigh-on-prices-ing-202607210642 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:42:19 Z
[11] Monarch Casino (MCRI) Q2 earnings and revenues top estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/monarch-casino-mcri-q2-earnings-and-revenues-top-estimates-202607210640 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:40:09 Z
[12] Euro pulls back against a stronger Pound following upbeat UK employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pulls-back-against-a-stronger-pound-following-upbeat-uk-employment-data-202607210625 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:25:43 Z
[13] US Dollar: Fed inflation framework questions - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-inflation-framework-questions-commerzbank-202607210622 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:22:56 Z
[14] British Pound attracts bids after UK employment data release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-attracts-bids-after-uk-employment-data-release-202607210622 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:22:34 Z
[15] British Pound holds positive ground near 1.3450 after UK employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-positive-ground-near-13450-after-uk-employment-data-202607210617 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:17:08 Z
[16] Euro: Downward bias capped by 1.1390 support against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downward-bias-capped-by-11390-support-against-us-dollar-uob-202607210610 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:10:37 Z
[17] United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate fell from previous 4.5% to 4.4% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-rate-fell-from-previous-45-to-44-in-june-202607210605 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:05:09 Z
[18] United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to Β£15.989B in June from previous Β£23.294B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-public-sector-net-borrowing-declined-to-ps15989b-in-june-from-previous-ps23294b-202607210601 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:01:36 Z
[19] UK Unemployment Rate steadies at 4.9% in May vs. 5.0% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-unemployment-rate-steadies-at-49-in-may-vs-50-expected-202607210601 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:01:25 Z
[20] Switzerland Trade Balance fell from previous 6110M to 5224M in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-trade-balance-fell-from-previous-6110m-to-5224m-in-june-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:41 Z
[21] United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 147K (May) vs 100K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-employment-change-3m-147k-may-vs-100k-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:25 Z
[22] United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (5%) in May: Actual (4.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-ilo-unemployment-rate-3m-below-expectations-5-in-may-actual-49-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:06 Z
[23] United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets expectations (3.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-excluding-bonus-3mo-yr-meets-expectations-34-in-may-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:04 Z
[24] United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.3%, below expectations (4.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-including-bonus-3mo-yr-registered-at-43-below-expectations-45-in-may-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:04 Z
[25] United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 6.7K, below expectations (28.3K) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-change-registered-at-67k-below-expectations-283k-in-june-202607210600 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:00:03 Z
[26] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $58.20 as oil price rally hits pause URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-surges-to-near-5820-as-oil-price-rally-hits-pause-202607210558 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 05:58:07 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran army claims drone attacks on US forces in Bahrain Time: 2026-07-21T07:26:45.494Z
[2] US strikes disrupt communications with two Iranian islands, minister says Time: 2026-07-21T07:16:31.373Z
[3] Qatar condemns Houthi accusations against Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-07-21T06:31:15.932Z
[BREAKING] [4] IRGC claims deadly strike on US military complex in Jordan Time: 2026-07-21T06:13:05.215Z
[BREAKING] [5] IRGC says it struck Amazon data infrastructure in Bahrain Time: 2026-07-21T05:58:22.474Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 11 of 60 normal daily β 18.3% of normal
- Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS75 (+50% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.8 billion/day economic cost