Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 09:16:16 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +3.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.32% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.66 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $81, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $750.78 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $750.61
QQQ: $719.19 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.01
IWM: $295.28 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.15
VIX: 16.79 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.577%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$750.78	53.68	61.9	$750.61	Neutral	1.13
QQQ	$719.19	41.27	82.8	$712.01	Neutral	1.47
IWM	$295.28	41.24	30.4	$294.15	Bearish	3.60

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.79	38.41	45.4	$10.50	Neutral	1.31
TNX	45.77 ▼	61.21	45.1	-	-	-
GLD	$374.01	37.13	35.1	$366.57	Bearish	4.02
DXY	100.69	37.81	32.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.39	32.45	22.8	$52.69	Bearish	1.65

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.96%
2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	88.9%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Materials	50.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	47.5%	0/0
Energy	47.4%	0/0
Technology	46.2%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $80.83 (5d: +9.9%)
Brent Crude: $86.84 | Spread: $6.01
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.17/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.812	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.442	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.392	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.477	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $111.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $750.78)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.58%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
DXY: 100.69
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,942B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,772 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $59.17/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (752.99) reclaimed ZGL (750.61) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 — institutional buying support fading.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
[WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.55%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

CPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.4% vs Est. -0.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
CPI(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 4.2%
Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.0% vs Est. 0.2% (MISS) | Prev: 0.2%
ADP Employment Change Weekly: 19.80 | Prev: 21.00
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): 2.6% vs Est. 2.8% (MISS) | Prev: 2.9%
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): ⏳ Pending

Earnings:

JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (↑7.5% vs 30d)
GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (↑5.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (↑11.1% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran lawmakers call for retaliation over Khamenei killing, end to US MoU Time: 2026-07-14T13:07:02.201Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 57.0% of normal
Throughput: 30.1% of normal (3.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost