Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 09:02:39 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.79 normal, SPY/DXY -0.47 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $81, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.24 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $750.61
- QQQ: $719.69 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.01
- IWM: $295.88 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.15
- VIX: 16.75 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.569%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.24 | 53.68 | 61.9 | $750.61 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| QQQ | $719.69 | 41.27 | 82.8 | $712.01 | Neutral | 1.47 |
| IWM | $295.88 | 41.24 | 30.4 | $294.15 | Bearish | 3.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.75 | 38.41 | 45.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| TNX | 45.69 | 61.21 | 45.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.56 | 37.13 | 35.1 | $366.57 | Bearish | 4.02 |
| DXY | 100.73 | 38.22 | 31.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.48 | 32.45 | 22.8 | $52.69 | Bearish | 1.65 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.76 (5d: +9.8%)
- Brent Crude: $87.13 | Spread: $6.37
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.96/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.785 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.47 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.472 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $111.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $751.24)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.73
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,942B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,804 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.96/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (752.99) reclaimed ZGL (750.61) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.4% vs Est. -0.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- CPI(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 4.2%
- Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.0% vs Est. 0.2% (MISS) | Prev: 0.2%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 19.80 | Prev: 21.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): 2.6% vs Est. 2.8% (MISS) | Prev: 2.9%
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): β³ Pending
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 8.2% in July 10 from previous 11.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-declined-to-82-in-july-10-from-previous-115-202607141255 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:55:00 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hawkish repricing supports Kiwi - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-hawkish-repricing-supports-kiwi-mufg-202607141248 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:48:39 Z
[3] Fed Chair Warsh to note they have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-chair-warsh-to-note-they-have-no-tolerance-for-persistently-elevated-inflation-202607141245 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:45:24 Z
[4] Breaking: US CPI inflation declines to 3.5% in June vs. 3.8% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-inflation-cooled-in-june-due-to-tumbling-fuel-prices-202607140830 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:31:04 Z
[5] United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a declined to 336.07 in June from previous 336.121 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-core-sa-declined-to-33607-in-june-from-previous-336121-202607141231 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:31:03 Z
[6] United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in June: Actual (2.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-ex-food-energy-yoy-below-expectations-28-in-june-actual-26-202607141230 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[7] United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-ex-food-energy-mom-registered-at-0-below-expectations-02-in-june-202607141230 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[8] United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-35-below-expectations-38-in-june-202607141230 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[9] United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-04-below-forecasts-01-in-june-202607141230 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[10] United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 333.95, below expectations (334.7) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-nsa-mom-registered-at-33395-below-expectations-3347-in-june-202607141230 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[11] Euro: Rate support at risk against US Dollar with energy shock - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rate-support-at-risk-against-us-dollar-with-energy-shock-ing-202607141227 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:27:30 Z
[12] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 216.50 as bullish trend continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-buyers-defend-21650-as-bullish-trend-continues-202607141226 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:26:21 Z
[13] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 21K to 19.75K in June 20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-fell-from-previous-21k-to-1975k-in-june-20-202607141215 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:15:07 Z
[14] Japanese Yen: JGB outperformance and repatriation story - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-jgb-outperformance-and-repatriation-story-bbh-202607141210 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:10:26 Z
[15] New Zealand Dollar hits fresh three-month highs as central banks divergence hurts the Aussie URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-hits-fresh-three-month-highs-as-central-banks-divergence-hurts-the-aussie-202607141205 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:05:43 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 57.0% of normal
- Throughput: 30.1% of normal (3.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost