Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-10 06:01:14 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.00 balanced
Gamma	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral · real yield 2.30% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.20 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.18 normal
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 145 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.60 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $751.17 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.99
QQQ: $722.93 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $705.99
IWM: $297.08 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.44
VIX: 15.84 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.539%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$751.17	46.33	66.5	$745.99	Bearish	0.42
QQQ	$722.93	43.88	84.0	$705.99	Bearish	0.40
IWM	$297.08	52.35	28.6	$297.44	Neutral	1.00

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.84	52.74	52.0	$10.50	Neutral	1.28
TNX	45.39	65.63	41.1	-	-	-
GLD	$378.28	32.47	40.3	$361.00	Bearish	1.53
DXY	100.94	62.84	24.1	-	-	-
SLV	$54.23	24.14	22.8	$38.00	Bearish	1.50

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.81B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.94%
2s10s Spread: 0.38% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.8%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Health Care	94.3%	0/0
Financials	88.1%	0/0
Utilities	80.0%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Industrials	64.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	55.9%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	47.5%	0/0
Materials	45.8%	0/0
Communication Services	40.0%	0/0
Energy	36.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $71.81 (5d: +4.5%)
Brent Crude: $76.04 | Spread: $4.23
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.69/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $54.82
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.83

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.837	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.421	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.201	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.18	normal

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.89
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,172,718.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,156,405.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.00 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $751.17)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.54%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
DXY: 100.94
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.8B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,956B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,839B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,365 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SKEW at 145 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.30% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.69/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.01 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=114668B
[INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.57%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

30-Year Bond Auction: 5.058% | Prev: 5.050%
Existing Home Sales(Jun): 4.09 vs Est. 4.19 (MISS) | Prev: 4.19
Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): -2.4% | Prev: 3.7%
Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (↑5.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (↑4.6% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-geopolitics-faded-as-markets-eye-rates-ing-202607100939 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:39:04 Z

[2] Indian Rupee surrenders early gains as US Dollar rebounds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gains-further-as-us-dollar-extends-decline-202607100524 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:33:54 Z

[3] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607100930 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:30:41 Z

[4] Canada Unemployment Rate projected to stay at 6.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-expected-to-remain-at-66-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:30:00 Z

[5] Canadian Dollar: Firmer against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-firmer-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202607100924 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:24:44 Z

[6] BoJ will likely revise 2026 GDP forecast higher in Q2 report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-will-likely-revise-2026-gdp-forecast-higher-in-q2-report-202607100916 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:16:27 Z

[7] Euro: Yield spreads hint at recovery against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-yield-spreads-hint-at-recovery-against-us-dollar-mufg-202607100910 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:10:51 Z

[8] British Pound retreats sharply from January 2008 highs amid broad-based JPY rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-retreats-sharply-from-january-2008-highs-amid-broad-based-jpy-rally-202607100904 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:04:47 Z

[9] British Pound surrenders early gains as US Dollar regains ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-surrenders-early-gains-as-us-dollar-regains-ground-202607100903 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:03:57 Z

[10] Greece Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 3.9% in May from previous 2.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-industrial-production-yoy-increased-to-39-in-may-from-previous-21-202607100859 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:59:51 Z

[11] Federal Reserve: No near-term hikes signalled - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-no-near-term-hikes-signalled-commerzbank-202607100851 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:51:58 Z

[12] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar finds resistance at the 161.75 previous support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-dollar-finds-resistance-at-the-16175-previous-support-202607100845 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:45:44 Z

[13] Gold seems vulnerable near $4,100 as USD rebounds amid Fed hike bets and Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-flat-lines-above-4-100-as-weaker-usd-clashes-with-fed-hike-bets-and-iran-risks-202607100428 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:42:40 Z

[14] Equities: Risk of renewed rates volatility - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-risk-of-renewed-rates-volatility-bny-202607100835 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:35:52 Z

[15] IEA confirms: Oil demand to rise by 1.2M bpd YoY in Q4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iea-confirms-oil-demand-to-rise-by-12m-bpd-yoy-in-q4-202607100830 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:30:01 Z

[16] Canadian Dollar: Jobs and BoC caution shape outlook - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-jobs-and-boc-caution-shape-outlook-ing-202607100812 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:12:03 Z

[17] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Recovers from three-week low; flat above 1.4150 ahead of jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-recovers-from-three-week-low-flat-above-14150-ahead-of-jobs-data-202607100802 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:02:40 Z

[18] Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-output-sa-mom-below-forecasts-02-in-may-actual-03-202607100800 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:00:53 Z

[19] Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) below forecasts (1.3%) in May: Actual (1.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-output-wda-yoy-below-forecasts-13-in-may-actual-11-202607100800 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:00:53 Z

[20] Japanese Yen: Policy shift talk supports JPY - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-shift-talk-supports-jpy-mufg-202607100759 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:59:03 Z

[21] Japan's Kihara says that specifics of monetary policy to be left to BoJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-kihara-says-that-specifics-of-monetary-policy-to-be-left-to-boj-202607100757 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:57:38 Z

[22] Euro remains pinned at one-year lows against the British Pound as Euro Area inflation moderates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-pinned-at-one-year-lows-against-the-british-pound-as-euro-area-inflation-moderates-202607100756 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:56:18 Z

[23] WTI rally takes a timeout amid signs of US-Iran war de-escalation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rally-takes-a-timeout-amid-signs-of-us-iran-war-de-escalation-202607100748 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:48:35 Z

[24] US Dollar: AI-driven imports reshape trade - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-ai-driven-imports-reshape-trade-commerzbank-202607100745 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:45:03 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Tehran cleric says funeral for slain leader showed 'collective patience' Time: 2026-07-10T09:31:03.160Z

[2] State media shows Trump Lego doll burned at Khamenei burial Time: 2026-07-10T09:28:24.501Z

[3] IRGC chief says slain leader's killing will not weaken allied groups Time: 2026-07-10T08:52:41.683Z

[4] Marine insurers cut Hormuz coverage pricing window as Iran conflict raises risks - CNN Time: 2026-07-10T08:13:25.679Z

[5] Iran lawmaker says slain supreme leader's death united Muslim nations Time: 2026-07-10T08:04:57.168Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 132 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 38.6% of normal
Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 500
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS520 (+940% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost