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2026-W28

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-10 04:01:15 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.00 balanced
Gamma βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 65% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral Β· real yield 2.30% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.20 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.18 normal
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.60 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β€” breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $751.17 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.99
  • QQQ: $722.93 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $705.99
  • IWM: $297.08 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.44
  • VIX: 15.84 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.539%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $751.17 46.33 66.5 $745.99 Bearish 0.42
QQQ $722.93 43.88 84.0 $705.99 Bearish 0.40
IWM $297.08 52.35 28.6 $297.44 Neutral 1.00

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.84 52.74 52.0 $10.50 Neutral 1.28
TNX 45.39 65.63 41.1 - - -
GLD $378.28 32.47 40.3 $361.00 Bearish 1.53
DXY 100.94 62.84 24.1 - - -
SLV $54.23 24.14 22.8 $38.00 Bearish 1.50

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.81B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.94%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.38% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.8%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Health Care 94.3% 0/0
Financials 88.1% 0/0
Utilities 80.0% 0/0
Real Estate 67.9% 0/0
Industrials 64.2% 0/0
Consumer Staples 55.9% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 47.5% 0/0
Materials 45.8% 0/0
Communication Services 40.0% 0/0
Energy 36.8% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $71.81 (5d: +4.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $76.04 | Spread: $4.23
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.69/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $54.82
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.83

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.837 normal
SPY / DXY -0.421 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.201 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.18 normal

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.89
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,172,718.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,156,405.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.00 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.1B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $751.17)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.54%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.94
  • Growth vs Value: 0.96
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.8B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,956B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,839B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,942 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.30% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.69/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.01 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=114668B
  • [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.57%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.058% | Prev: 5.050%
  • Existing Home Sales(Jun): 4.09 vs Est. 4.19 (MISS) | Prev: 4.19
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
  • Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): -2.4% | Prev: 3.7%
  • Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (↑5.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (↑4.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Oil: Brent retraces gains on fragile ceasefire - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-brent-retraces-gains-on-fragile-ceasefire-rabobank-202607100725 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:25:36 Z

[2] Gold sticks to modest losses; eyes $4,100 as Fed hike bets and Iran risks support USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-flat-lines-above-4-100-as-weaker-usd-clashes-with-fed-hike-bets-and-iran-risks-202607100428 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:19:21 Z

[3] British Pound: Upside risk toward resistance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-risk-toward-resistance-against-us-dollar-uob-202607100718 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:18:16 Z

[4] United States Dollar Index extends losses as US and Iran attempt to resume talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-extends-losses-as-us-and-iran-attempt-to-resume-talks-202607100717 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:17:30 Z

[5] Forex Today: US Dollar extends correction as US-Iran conflict remains under spotlight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-extends-correction-as-us-iran-conflict-remains-under-spotlight-202607100714 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:14:45 Z

[6] Euro: Narrow path for sustained strength against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-narrow-path-for-sustained-strength-against-us-dollar-ing-202607100708 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:08:36 Z

[7] Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX) reports Q2 loss, lags revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nurix-therapeutics-inc-nrix-reports-q2-loss-lags-revenue-estimates-202607100706 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:06:08 Z

[8] Indian Rupee rebounds further, ignoring oil price recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gains-further-as-us-dollar-extends-decline-202607100524 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:01:57 Z

[9] Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 0.7% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-industrial-production-yoy-climbed-from-previous-06-to-07-in-may-202607100700 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 07:00:11 Z

[10] Equities: Tech and chips drive relief rally - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-and-chips-drive-relief-rally-deutsche-bank-202607100655 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:55:17 Z

[11] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 0.5750, but remains below key technical resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-gathers-strength-above-05750-but-remains-below-key-technical-resistance-202607100648 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:48:08 Z

[12] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises as oil prices correct, US Dollar faces pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rises-as-oil-prices-correct-us-dollar-faces-pressure-202607100645 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:45:30 Z

[13] France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.3% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-inflation-ex-tobacco-mom-dipped-from-previous-01-to-03-in-june-202607100645 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:45:01 Z

[14] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-03-in-june-202607100645 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:45:00 Z

[15] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-meets-expectations-2-in-june-202607100645 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:45:00 Z

[16] Indian Rupee: Inflation uptick with monsoon support - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-inflation-uptick-with-monsoon-support-dbs-202607100633 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:33:21 Z

[17] Polish Zloty: Dovish Glapinski undercuts support - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-dovish-glapinski-undercuts-support-commerzbank-202607100622 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:22:44 Z

[18] Euro consolidates near 1.1450 as German data confirms easing inflationary pressures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidates-near-11450-as-german-data-confirms-easing-inflationary-pressures-202607100622 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:22:37 Z

[19] Japanese Yen rises as Japan urges pension funds to invest in domestic assets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-rises-as-japan-urges-pension-funds-to-invest-in-domestic-assets-202607100608 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:08:16 Z

[20] Euro: Range trade bias intact against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-trade-bias-intact-against-us-dollar-uob-202607100607 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:07:35 Z

[21] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.4%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-forecasts-24-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:00:07 Z

[22] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-03-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:00:06 Z

[23] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-meets-forecasts-02-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:00:06 Z

[24] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-23-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:00:04 Z

[25] Canada Unemployment Rate expected to remain at 6.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-expected-to-remain-at-66-in-june-202607100600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 06:00:00 Z

[26] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP gains ground to near 1.3430 early European session URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-gains-ground-to-near-13430-early-european-session-202607100551 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 05:51:31 Z

[27] Swiss Franc gives back some early gains against US Dollar, US CPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gives-back-some-early-gains-against-us-dollar-us-cpi-in-focus-202607100549 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 05:49:38 Z

[28] Australian Dollar retreats from over two-week high, up a little around 0.6950 vs USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-retreats-from-over-two-week-high-up-a-little-around-06950-vs-usd-202607100543 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 05:43:02 Z

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran army chief vows to carry on 'path of slain supreme leader' Time: 2026-07-10T06:49:36.531Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 132 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β€” 56.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 200
  • Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost