Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-29 06:00:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy
Gamma	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	live dealer gamma -6.6B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX -4.7B severe amplification
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.0% growth optimism · real yield 2.19% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.51 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 4.84 above-trend
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 14 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF — negative GEX (-4.7B) and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.438; live dealer gamma negative at -6.6B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $731.20 | 50 SMA $734.35 | 200 SMA $690.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.33
QQQ: $706.14 | 50 SMA $702.79 | 200 SMA $632.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.0
IWM: $298.89 | 50 SMA $284.61 | 200 SMA $259.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.7
VIX: 18.41 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.372%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$731.20	44.93	75.2	$738.33	Bearish	2.33
QQQ	$706.14	50.43	99.2	$711.00	Bearish	2.58
IWM	$298.89	73.09	69.9	$296.70	Neutral	1.00

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.41	48.61	98.5	$10.50	Neutral	1.22
TNX	43.72	32.10	34.1	-	-	-
GLD	$374.98	36.88	43.7	$275.00	Neutral	0.95
DXY	101.36	72.01	24.6	-	-	-
SLV	$53.50	31.92	25.7	$40.00	Neutral	0.94

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): -4.68B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.95%
2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.7%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
Mag 7 Concentration: 29.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Real Estate	82.1%	0/0
Health Care	77.8%	0/0
Industrials	73.1%	0/0
Financials	70.6%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Materials	62.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Technology	40.0%	0/0
Energy	31.6%	0/0
Communication Services	15.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $69.23 (5d: -7.5%)
Brent Crude: $72.60 | Spread: $3.37
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.41/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $53.84
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.87

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.88	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.412	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.508	stretched
SPY / Oil	-0.395	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $713.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $743 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $731.20)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers · GEX -4.7B (deep_negative))

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.37%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
DXY: 101.36
Growth vs Value: 0.97
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,970B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,109B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,890B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,977 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.41/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $105.48 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=110587B
[WARNING] GEX flipped negative to -4.7B — dealer hedging now amplifies moves.
[INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to -4.7B — dealer gamma cushion thinning.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
[WARNING] SPY (731.48) dropped below ZGL (732.05) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (733.12) reclaimed ZGL (732.95) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B

Seasonality

Current Month: June
Average Return: +0.10%
Median Return: +0.46%
Hit Rate: 55%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.8%
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.3% vs Est. 3.4% (MISS) | Prev: 3.4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 50.7 vs Est. 49.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 49.5 vs Est. 48.9 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8
Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.49 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-shifts-from-selloff-to-consolidation-against-us-dollar-uob-202606290949 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:49:09 Z

[2] S&P 500: Will the correction continue? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-will-the-correction-continue-202606290943 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:43:54 Z

[3] Japanese Yen: Data and BoJ Tankan to guide policy - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-data-and-boj-tankan-to-guide-policy-deutsche-bank-202606290937 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:37:34 Z

[4] Indian Rupee remains flat at the start of US NFP week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-flat-awaits-us-iran-talks-in-oman-202606290557 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:35:50 Z

[5] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606290930 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:30:59 Z

[6] Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.4% in June from previous 4.08% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-yoy-down-to-34-in-june-from-previous-408-202606290930 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:30:01 Z

[7] Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.3% (June) vs -0.08% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-mom-03-june-vs-008-202606290930 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:30:00 Z

[8] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Might correct further to near 1.4140 as oscillators start cooling down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-might-correct-further-to-near-14140-as-oscillators-start-cooling-down-202606290926 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:26:11 Z

[9] Gold weakens on US-Iran de-escalation, expectations of Fed tightening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-on-us-iran-de-escalation-expectations-of-fed-tightening-202606290923 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:23:22 Z

[10] Gold: Shallow rallies in two-way trading - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-shallow-rallies-in-two-way-trading-ocbc-202606290918 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:18:53 Z

[11] Iran and Oman say they hold sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-and-oman-say-they-hold-sovereignty-over-strait-of-hormuz-202606290916 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:16:04 Z

[12] US Dollar Index: Policy divergence supports stronger outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-policy-divergence-supports-stronger-outlook-mufg-202606290909 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:09:25 Z

[13] Australian Dollar struggles against softer US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-struggles-against-softer-us-dollar-amid-geopolitical-uncertainty-202606290901 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:01:13 Z

[14] Eurozone Business Climate declined to -0.38 in June from previous -0.26 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-business-climate-declined-to-038-in-june-from-previous-026-202606290900 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:47 Z

[15] Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 3.2, above expectations (2.5) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-services-sentiment-came-in-at-32-above-expectations-25-in-june-202606290900 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:04 Z

[16] Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets expectations (-17.7) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-consumer-confidence-meets-expectations-177-in-june-202606290900 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[17] Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -7.7 above expectations (-7.8) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-confidence-registered-at-77-above-expectations-78-in-june-202606290900 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[18] Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95, above expectations (94.3) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-economic-sentiment-indicator-came-in-at-95-above-expectations-943-in-june-202606290900 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[19] Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-sintra-tone-and-cpi-support-gains-against-us-dollar-ing-202606290859 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:59:30 Z

[20] Australian Dollar: Consolidates after sharp fall against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-consolidates-after-sharp-fall-against-us-dollar-uob-202606290847 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:47:58 Z

[21] Brent Oil: Conflict risks ease but remain - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-oil-conflict-risks-ease-but-remain-deutsche-bank-202606290837 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:37:17 Z

[22] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) declined to 4.3% in May from previous 4.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-yoy-declined-to-43-in-may-from-previous-45-202606290836 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:36:39 Z

[23] United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) below forecasts (£6B) in May: Actual (£4.6B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-net-lending-to-individuals-mom-below-forecasts-ps6b-in-may-actual-ps46b-202606290831 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:31:04 Z

[24] Portugal Consumer Confidence: -25.9 (June) vs -27.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-confidence-259-june-vs-271-202606290830 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:20 Z

[25] Portugal Business Confidence up to 2.8 in June from previous 2.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-business-confidence-up-to-28-in-june-from-previous-27-202606290830 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:19 Z

[26] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-mom-came-in-at-01-below-expectations-02-in-may-202606290830 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:19 Z

[27] United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 56.21K, below expectations (63K) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals-registered-at-5621k-below-expectations-63k-in-may-202606290830 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:06 Z

[28] United Kingdom Consumer Credit: £1.662B (May) vs previous £1.859B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-credit-ps1662b-may-vs-previous-ps1859b-202606290830 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:06 Z

[29] ECB: Sintra signals and sticky hike premium - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-sintra-signals-and-sticky-hike-premium-commerzbank-202606290828 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:28:59 Z

[30] Dow Jones futures rise on easing Middle East tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-easing-middle-east-tensions-202606290822 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:22:43 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Citizens tell Iran football team it lost the public long ago Time: 2026-06-29T09:33:20.980Z

[2] Tehran-Dubai flights to resume after months-long halt Time: 2026-06-29T08:45:22.634Z

[3] Iran central bank denies role in choosing tech firms after bank outages Time: 2026-06-29T08:41:54.167Z

[BREAKING] [4] Iran, US technical teams to meet in Doha in coming days - Reuters Time: 2026-06-29T08:05:36.520Z

[BREAKING] [5] Pezeshkian says $6 billion of Iran funds in Qatar to be released Time: 2026-06-29T07:55:50.448Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 121 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 40 of 60 normal daily — 66.7% of normal
Throughput: 27.2% of normal (2.8M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 275
Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost