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2026-W27

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-29 04:00:23 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy
Gamma πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT live dealer gamma -6.6B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX -4.7B severe amplification
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 64% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +9.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.51 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 139 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.84 above-trend
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 14 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β€” breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF β€” negative GEX (-4.7B) and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.438; live dealer gamma negative at -6.6B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $731.20 | 50 SMA $734.35 | 200 SMA $690.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.33
  • QQQ: $706.14 | 50 SMA $702.79 | 200 SMA $632.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.0
  • IWM: $298.89 | 50 SMA $284.61 | 200 SMA $259.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.7
  • VIX: 18.41 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.372%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $731.20 44.93 75.2 $738.33 Bearish 2.33
QQQ $706.14 50.43 99.2 $711.00 Bearish 2.58
IWM $298.89 73.09 69.9 $296.70 Neutral 1.00

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.41 48.61 98.5 $10.50 Neutral 1.22
TNX 43.72 32.10 34.1 - - -
GLD $374.98 36.88 43.7 $275.00 Neutral 0.95
DXY 101.36 72.01 24.6 - - -
SLV $53.50 31.92 25.7 $40.00 Neutral 0.94

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): -4.68B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.95%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 29.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 90.0% 0/0
Real Estate 82.1% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Industrials 73.1% 0/0
Financials 70.6% 0/0
Consumer Staples 70.6% 0/0
Materials 62.5% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 59.3% 0/0
Technology 40.0% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Communication Services 15.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $69.23 (5d: -7.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $72.60 | Spread: $3.37
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.41/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $53.84
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.87

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.88 normal
SPY / DXY -0.412 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.508 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.395 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $713.3B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $743 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $731.20)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· GEX -4.7B (deep_negative))

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.37%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.36
  • Growth vs Value: 0.97
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,970B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,109B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,890B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,915 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.41/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $105.48 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=110587B
  • [WARNING] GEX flipped negative to -4.7B β€” dealer hedging now amplifies moves.
  • [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to -4.7B β€” dealer gamma cushion thinning.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
  • [WARNING] SPY (731.48) dropped below ZGL (732.05) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (733.12) reclaimed ZGL (732.95) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.10%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
  • Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.8%
  • Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.3% vs Est. 3.4% (MISS) | Prev: 3.4%
  • Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 50.7 vs Est. 49.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 49.5 vs Est. 48.9 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8
  • Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.49 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Japanese Yen: Holds near multi-year lows against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-holds-near-multi-year-lows-against-us-dollar-uob-202606290740 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:40:36 Z

[2] United States Dollar Index declines as US-Iran attacks halt URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-declines-as-us-iran-attacks-halt-202606290737 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:37:29 Z

[3] S&P 500: Tech-led correction after chip rout - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-tech-led-correction-after-chip-rout-deutsche-bank-202606290731 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:31:54 Z

[4] AI's next phase: From memory winners to efficiency enablers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ais-next-phase-from-memory-winners-to-efficiency-enablers-202606290731 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:31:36 Z

[5] Indian Rupee flattens while focus shifts to US-Iran talks in Oman URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-flat-awaits-us-iran-talks-in-oman-202606290557 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:24:18 Z

[6] Indian Rupee: Lower oil prices supports against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-lower-oil-prices-supports-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606290723 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:23:34 Z

[7] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 1.4200 within overbought zone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-holds-losses-below-14200-within-overbought-zone-202606290721 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:21:01 Z

[8] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains sideways below 162.00 despite Japan intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-remains-sideways-below-16200-despite-japan-intervention-fears-202606290714 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:14:58 Z

[9] Oil: downside momentum persists as risks linger - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-downside-momentum-persists-as-risks-linger-ing-202606290713 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:13:40 Z

[10] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.6% in June from previous 0.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-up-to-06-in-june-from-previous-01-202606290701 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:01:22 Z

[11] Spain Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 0.8% to 1.3% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-retail-sales-yoy-rose-from-previous-08-to-13-in-may-202606290701 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:01:03 Z

[12] Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-mom-rose-from-previous-01-to-06-in-june-202606290700 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:00:57 Z

[13] Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-32-in-june-202606290700 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:00:50 Z

[14] Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 97.2 to 98.9 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-economic-confidence-index-climbed-from-previous-972-to-989-in-may-202606290700 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:00:44 Z

[15] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) remains at 3.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-remains-at-36-in-june-202606290700 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:00:01 Z

[16] WTI falls below $70.00 on US-Iran ceasefire talks uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-below-7000-on-us-iran-ceasefire-talks-uncertainty-202606290658 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:58:19 Z

[17] Forex Today: Cautious start to week as markets assess latest on US-Iran conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-cautious-start-to-week-as-markets-assess-latest-on-us-iran-conflict-202606290656 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:56:00 Z

[18] US Dollar: Supported with elevated real yields - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-supported-with-elevated-real-yields-mufg-202606290655 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:55:18 Z

[19] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound keeps looking for direction around 1.3200 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-pound-keeps-looking-for-direction-around-13200-202606290639 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:39:09 Z

[20] British Pound: Pound capped as bearish bias lingers against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-pound-capped-as-bearish-bias-lingers-against-us-dollar-uob-202606290638 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:38:17 Z

[21] Euro: Higher levels seen as slow grind against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-higher-levels-seen-as-slow-grind-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606290625 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:25:20 Z

[22] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines to near $58.60 as US-Iran attacks renew energy supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-declines-to-near-5860-as-us-iran-attacks-renew-energy-supply-concerns-202606290623 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:23:02 Z

[23] What will Q2 earnings season show? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-will-q2-earnings-season-show-202606290621 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:21:22 Z

[24] Gold slumps to near $4,050 as US-Iran talks uncertainty triggers inflation fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-falls-to-near-4-050-amid-us-iran-talks-uncertainty-202606290129 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:07:10 Z

[25] Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) increased to 2.9B in May from previous -7.3B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-trade-balance-mom-increased-to-29b-in-may-from-previous-73b-202606290600 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:00:03 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran lawmaker says public holds $40 billion in foreign cash Time: 2026-06-29T07:34:11.147Z

[2] Israel says it struck Hezbollah command centers in southern Lebanon Time: 2026-06-29T06:56:22.243Z

[3] Iran, Oman hold first joint Hormuz committee meeting Time: 2026-06-29T06:34:01.455Z

[4] Iran cyberattacks on Israel rose sharply in 2026, official says Time: 2026-06-29T06:13:33.384Z

[5] Hardline daily editor says Trump must be handed to Iran for trial Time: 2026-06-29T05:47:01.341Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 117 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 8.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost