Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-24 08:31:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.28% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.53 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.26 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.411; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $736.85 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.95
- QQQ: $718.73 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.96
- IWM: $296.61 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.86
- VIX: 18.77 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.447%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $736.85 | 37.67 | 76.2 | $735.95 | Bearish | 1.77 |
| QQQ | $718.73 | 41.51 | 100.0 | $715.96 | Bearish | 1.95 |
| IWM | $296.61 | 53.42 | 76.4 | $295.86 | Neutral | 1.45 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.77 | 56.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| TNX | 44.47 | 54.26 | 26.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.40 | 30.67 | 39.3 | $300.00 | Bearish | 8.63 |
| DXY | 101.68 | 80.46 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.24 | 25.90 | 22.4 | $20.00 | Bearish | 1.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 26.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $70.92 (5d: -7.6%)
- Brent Crude: $74.52 | Spread: $3.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.60/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.50
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.892 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.417 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.53 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.391 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $700.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $736.85)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.76 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.68
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,849B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,111B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,923B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,721 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 18.8, breadth 60%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.28% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.60/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $111.26 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (736.85) reclaimed ZGL (735.95) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=108153B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- New Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] United States Current Account came in at $-226.8B below forecasts ($-217.5B) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-current-account-came-in-at-2268b-below-forecasts-2175b-in-1q-202606241230 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:30:07 Z
[2] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD resumes downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-resumes-downside-202606241222 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:22:32 Z
[3] Silver hits fresh YTD lows as hawkish Fed bets propel the US Dollar to over one-year highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-hits-fresh-ytd-lows-as-hawkish-fed-bets-propel-the-us-dollar-to-over-one-year-highs-202606241220 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:20:18 Z
[4] Australian Dollar: Jobs rebound expected, RBA on alert - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-jobs-rebound-expected-rba-on-alert-td-securities-202606241220 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:20:08 Z
[5] Japanese Yen remains stuck near long-term lows weighed by wide Fed-BoJ rate differential URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-stuck-near-long-term-lows-weighed-by-wide-fed-boj-rate-differential-202606241208 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:08:45 Z
[6] Brazilian Real: Conditional easing path for BCB - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-conditional-easing-path-for-bcb-standard-chartered-202606241206 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:06:33 Z
[7] Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at -0.11%, below expectations (0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-inflation-came-in-at-011-below-expectations-01-in-june-202606241200 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:00:02 Z
[8] Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.19% below forecasts (0.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-core-inflation-came-in-at-019-below-forecasts-02-in-june-202606241200 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:00:02 Z
[9] Canadian Dollar dips as Fed tightening expectations, Iran tensions bolster US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-dips-as-fed-tightening-expectations-iran-tensions-bolster-us-dollar-202606241159 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:59:18 Z
[10] Indonesian Rupiah: BI tightening to cushion IDR against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-bi-tightening-to-cushion-idr-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606241155 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:55:01 Z
[11] XLF rally from blue box delivers riskβfree setup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/xlf-rally-from-blue-box-delivers-risk-free-setup-202606241151 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:51:34 Z
[12] Gold: Slower grind higher as forecasts cut - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slower-grind-higher-as-forecasts-cut-ing-202606241141 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:41:48 Z
[13] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Resumes downside after testing Triangle breakdown zone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-resumes-downside-after-testing-triangle-breakdown-zone-202606241136 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:36:52 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Ghalibaf meets Azerbaijan's Aliyev in Baku Time: 2026-06-24T12:13:14.070Z
[BREAKING] [2] Rubio discusses Iran deal, Hormuz transit with UAE leaders Time: 2026-06-24T12:07:17.889Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 116 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 23 of 60 normal daily β 38.3% of normal
- Throughput: 36.6% of normal (3.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 430
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 10.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost