Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-24 08:01:23 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.28% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.53 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.11 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.411; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $735.02 | 50 SMA $730.95 | 200 SMA $688.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.82
- QQQ: $716.04 | 50 SMA $695.74 | 200 SMA $629.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $725.99
- IWM: $295.69 | 50 SMA $282.08 | 200 SMA $258.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $271.67
- VIX: 19.49 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.493%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.02 | 42.60 | 70.8 | $744.82 | Bearish | 3.10 |
| QQQ | $716.04 | 48.60 | 98.4 | $725.99 | Bearish | 4.04 |
| IWM | $295.69 | 58.62 | 74.2 | $271.67 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.49 | 53.13 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| TNX | 44.93 β² | 53.78 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $376.27 | 33.94 | 38.4 | $300.00 | Bearish | 12.66 |
| DXY | 101.40 | 80.65 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.70 | 30.60 | 20.7 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 26.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.85 (5d: -4.2%)
- Brent Crude: $76.74 | Spread: $3.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.50
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.892 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.417 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.53 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.391 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,214,373.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,335,149.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $700.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $735.02)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.40
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,849B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,111B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,923B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,772 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 19.5, breadth 60%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.28% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.21/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $111.26 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=108153B
- [INFO] Screener: VNOM β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- New Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Building Permits(May): β³ Pending
- Current Account(Q1): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] US Dollar: Fed guidance and PCE risks - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-guidance-and-pce-risks-dbs-202606241125 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:25:49 Z
[2] Gold bears target $4,000 as stronger US Dollar and Fed rate-hike bets weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bears-target-4-000-as-stronger-us-dollar-and-fed-rate-hike-bets-weigh-202606241118 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:18:34 Z
[3] Euro: Testing 1.1300 risk grows against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-testing-11300-risk-grows-against-us-dollar-ing-202606241110 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:10:28 Z
[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD heads for the $4,000 level as US Dollar marches higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-heads-for-the-4-000-level-as-us-dollar-marches-higher-202606241105 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:05:39 Z
[5] United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 1% (June 19) vs -3.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-1-june-19-vs-38-202606241100 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 11:00:01 Z
[6] SNB's Tschudin: Ready to intervene in FX market if necessary URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/snbs-tschudin-ready-to-intervene-in-fx-market-if-necessary-202606241046 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:46:59 Z
[7] Indian Rupee declines amid hawkish Fed bets, RBI pushes back rate hike fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-declines-further-against-us-dollar-as-hawkish-fed-bets-remain-firm-202606240527 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:29:39 Z
[8] Strait of Hormuz talks begin as Gulf states oppose transit fees URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/strait-of-hormuz-talks-begin-as-gulf-states-oppose-transit-fees-202606241026 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:26:50 Z
[9] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi hits fresh YTD lows below 0.5650 as the US Dollar soars URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-kiwi-hits-fresh-ytd-lows-below-05650-as-the-us-dollar-soars-202606241020 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:20:37 Z
[10] Euro edges lower vs Yen as German sentiment, ECB caution meet Japan intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-edges-lower-vs-yen-as-german-sentiment-ecb-caution-meet-japan-intervention-fears-202606241005 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:05:12 Z
[11] Australian Dollar: Valuation gap and downside risks - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-valuation-gap-and-downside-risks-societe-generale-202606240959 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:59:12 Z
[12] Euro: Yield gap drives downside risk against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-yield-gap-drives-downside-risk-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606240946 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:46:20 Z
[13] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD licks its wounds above $61.00 amid a strong US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-licks-its-wounds-above-6100-amid-a-strong-us-dollar-202606240937 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:37:36 Z
[14] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606240932 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:32:03 Z
[15] US Dollar: Strength reflected in year-end forecast revisions - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-strength-reflected-in-year-end-forecast-revisions-ocbc-202606240931 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:31:38 Z
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[1] Bessent says most Iran funds will buy US food, medicine Time: 2026-06-24T11:48:54.826Z
[2] Trump says Iran will not charge ships to use Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-06-24T11:40:23.717Z
[BREAKING] [3] Israeli military says it struck two armed Hezbollah militants in south Lebanon Time: 2026-06-24T11:33:42.727Z
[BREAKING] [4] Iran central bank says foreign currency supply to rise after US waivers Time: 2026-06-24T11:22:34.603Z
[5] Ships begin passing through Hormuz under UN evacuation plan - Reuters Time: 2026-06-24T11:14:15.322Z
[BREAKING] [6] EU diplomatic service proposes three-year mission in Lebanon - Reuters Time: 2026-06-24T11:07:11.432Z
[BREAKING] [7] Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon security zone, defense minister says Time: 2026-06-24T11:05:34.964Z
[8] Iran says access to attacked nuclear sites depends on final US deal Time: 2026-06-24T10:31:41.517Z
[9] Iran, Arab states to hold talks on future of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-06-24T10:20:27.082Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 116 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 23 of 60 normal daily β 38.3% of normal
- Throughput: 36.6% of normal (3.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 430
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 10.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost