Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-12 00:00:36 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.432 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.67 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.18 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.432) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.432 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.48 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $731.0
- QQQ: $719.38 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.43
- IWM: $291.28 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $267.5
- VIX: 19.44 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.48 | 37.19 | 56.0 | $731.00 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| QQQ | $719.38 | 41.09 | 99.9 | $704.43 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| IWM | $291.28 | 52.52 | 77.0 | $267.50 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.44 | 66.81 | 75.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 45.74 | 60.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $387.34 | 19.71 | 29.6 | $310.00 | Bearish | 1.58 |
| DXY | 99.78 | 62.32 | 15.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.08 | 21.10 | 24.1 | $35.22 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.432
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 22/28 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 23/34 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 43/67 |
| Financials | 63.2% | 43/68 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 38/65 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 34/59 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 31/54 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 7/20 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 6/19 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.70 (5d: -4.2%)
- Brent Crude: $89.49 | Spread: $2.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.12
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.16
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.843 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.674 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.821 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.324 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.45
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 5,436,705.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,572,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $812.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $739.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.78
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,100B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,144B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,432 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.16/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.83 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.15%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Needs to break above 20-day for sustained recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-needs-to-break-above-20-day-for-sustained-recovery-202606120320 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:20:33 Z
[2] Swiss Franc weakens as renewing risk aversion lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-renewing-risk-aversion-lifts-us-dollar-202606120316 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:16:08 Z
[3] United States Dollar Index gains ground above 99.50 as Middle East tensions, hot US PPI fuel demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-gains-ground-above-9950-as-middle-east-tensions-hot-us-ppi-fuel-demand-202606120242 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 02:42:17 Z
[4] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds gains near 185.50 as bullish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-holds-gains-near-18550-as-bullish-bias-prevails-202606120234 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 02:34:26 Z
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips to near $67.00 as Middle East tensions flare URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-to-near-6700-as-middle-east-tensions-flare-202606120210 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 02:10:58 Z
[6] New Zealand Dollar slides closer to 0.5800 as Iran risks lift USD and counter hawkish RBNZ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-slides-closer-to-05800-as-iran-risks-lift-usd-and-counter-hawkish-rbnz-202606120159 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:59:23 Z
[7] Australian Dollar edges lower below 0.7050 as US PPI lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-lower-below-07050-as-us-ppi-lifts-us-dollar-202606120156 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:56:35 Z
[8] US forces intercept Iranian drones targeting shipping in Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-forces-intercept-iranian-drones-targeting-shipping-in-hormuz-202606120132 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:32:18 Z
[9] Canadian Dollar weakens despite easing risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-despite-easing-risk-aversion-202606120127 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:27:34 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Qatar, UAE, Pakistan convinced Trump to pull back from Iran strike - report Time: 2026-06-12T03:55:08.034Z
[2] US planes head to Europe ahead of possible Vance trip for Iran deal signing Time: 2026-06-12T03:47:41.303Z
[3] US, Iran discuss access to $16B in restricted funds - Politico Time: 2026-06-12T03:42:21.765Z
[4] MoU with Iran satisfies 'all US requirements', diplomat tells Axios Time: 2026-06-12T03:36:34.114Z
[5] Iran-backed hackers claim breach of California water systems - state media Time: 2026-06-12T02:58:15.979Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-06-11, 1 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 69 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 287
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 4000.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS90 (+80% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost