Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 22:00:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.432 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.68 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.18 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.432) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.432 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.48 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $731.0
- QQQ: $719.38 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.43
- IWM: $291.28 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $267.5
- VIX: 19.44 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.48 | 37.19 | 56.0 | $731.00 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| QQQ | $719.38 | 41.09 | 99.9 | $704.43 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| IWM | $291.28 | 52.52 | 77.0 | $267.50 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.44 | 66.81 | 75.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 45.74 | 60.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $387.34 | 19.71 | 29.6 | $310.00 | Bearish | 1.58 |
| DXY | 99.78 | 62.32 | 15.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.08 | 21.10 | 24.1 | $35.22 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.432
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.70 (5d: -4.2%)
- Brent Crude: $89.49 | Spread: $2.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.12
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.16
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.843 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.68 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.821 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.324 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.45
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 5,436,705.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,572,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $812.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $739.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.78
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,100B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,144B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,406 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.16/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.83 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.15%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Japan's Katayama: No impact expected on policy meeting after BoJ's Ueda hospitalized URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-no-impact-expected-on-policy-meeting-after-bojs-ueda-hospitalized-202606120121 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:21:23 Z
[2] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8109 vs. 6.8150 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68109-vs-68150-previous-202606120116 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:16:34 Z
[3] British Pound eases from weekly high vs USD as Iran risks and UK data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-eases-from-weekly-high-vs-usd-as-iran-risks-and-uk-data-looms-202606120112 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:12:05 Z
[4] Japanese Yen softens as hot US PPI boost US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-softens-as-hot-us-ppi-boost-us-dollar-202606120110 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:10:03 Z
[5] WTI steadies around $85.00 as Trump indicates potential Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-steadies-around-8500-as-trump-indicates-potential-iran-deal-202606120103 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:03:57 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] US downs Iranian drones after attempted attack on ships in Hormuz - Fox News Time: 2026-06-12T01:21:30.884Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 99 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 287
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost