Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-25 02:00:51 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.433 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.22 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.4B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.77% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.433 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 2.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.66 | 50 SMA $745.07 | 200 SMA $698.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.49
- QQQ: $683.96 | 50 SMA $718.29 | 200 SMA $643.17 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $684.74
- IWM: $291.40 | 50 SMA $291.19 | 200 SMA $264.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $267.0
- VIX: 18.58 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.679%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.66 | 39.09 | 39.7 | $738.49 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| QQQ | $683.96 | 33.06 | 58.6 | $684.74 | Bearish | 2.77 |
| IWM | $291.40 | 36.34 | 0.0 | $267.00 | Bearish | 4.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.58 | 60.58 | 40.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| TNX | 46.79 | 70.33 | 13.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.46 | 41.31 | 25.0 | $371.68 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| DXY | 101.47 | 61.65 | 12.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.66 | 39.19 | 13.1 | $36.00 | Bearish | 2.40 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.35B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.77% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 96.7% | 29/30 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 57/67 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Industrials | 74.6% | 50/67 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 23/34 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 26/59 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 8/20 |
| Technology | 33.8% | 22/65 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.31 (5d: +7.3%)
- Brent Crude: $96.78 | Spread: $7.47
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.41/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.917 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.391 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.591 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.82
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $695.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $738.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.47
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,767B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,905B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,589B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,956 βΌ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.43% (vs 20d avg 2.28, +2.1Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.591 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $136.69 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] World Foundation raises over $52M in token sale as World Network marks third anniversary URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/world-foundation-raises-over-52m-in-token-sale-as-world-network-marks-third-anniversary-202607250542 Published: Sat, 25 Jul 2026 05:42:47 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Houthis claim missile attack on Saudi city of Jizan Time: 2026-07-25T05:56:09.036Z
[2] Kuwait's KPC says $16 billion Project Peregrine includes Blackstone, Brookfield, KKR Time: 2026-07-25T05:51:15.508Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 147 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost