Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 21:45:34 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.433 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.22 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.4B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.77% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $90, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.433 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 2.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.95 | 50 SMA $745.05 | 200 SMA $698.21 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.49
- QQQ: $684.86 | 50 SMA $718.75 | 200 SMA $642.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $684.74
- IWM: $291.64 | 50 SMA $291.02 | 200 SMA $264.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.89
- VIX: 18.58 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.679%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.95 | 44.71 | 39.8 | $738.49 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| QQQ | $684.86 | 41.14 | 57.8 | $684.74 | Bearish | 2.77 |
| IWM | $291.64 | 40.43 | 0.0 | $291.89 | Bearish | 4.18 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.58 | 60.07 | 40.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| TNX | 46.79 β² | 73.00 | 34.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.49 | 44.71 | 30.3 | $371.68 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| DXY | 101.46 | 61.58 | 12.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.63 | 41.21 | 18.8 | $52.95 | Bearish | 2.40 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.35B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.77% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 96.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 74.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 33.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.47 (5d: +8.7%)
- Brent Crude: $98.38 | Spread: $7.91
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.91/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.62
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.917 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.391 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.591 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.82
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,236,173.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,178,845.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $695.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $738.95)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,767B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,905B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,589B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,084 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.43% (vs 20d avg 2.28, +2.1Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.591 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $136.69 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH shows bottom signs but relative performance against Bitcoin not there yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-shows-bottom-signs-but-relative-performance-against-bitcoin-not-there-yet-202607242247 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 22:47:51 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] US lawmaker voices support for tougher Iran nuclear stance Time: 2026-07-24T23:54:51.119Z
[2] Iran lawmaker compares Trump to Goliath in social media post Time: 2026-07-24T23:03:31.385Z
[3] Bahrain says air defenses intercepted Iranian attacks Time: 2026-07-24T22:32:04.766Z
[4] Iraqi PM sought Iran's help securing oil shipments through Hormuz - report Time: 2026-07-24T22:27:59.554Z
[5] Iran accuses US of striking search-and-rescue vessels in UN complaint Time: 2026-07-24T22:24:53.359Z
[6] Lloyd's insurers warn Hormuz transit payments could void vessel coverage Time: 2026-07-24T22:13:25.663Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β 13.0% of normal
- Throughput: 13.6% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost