Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 15:32:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.22 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.39% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.56 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 19 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.77% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.88 | 50 SMA $745.05 | 200 SMA $698.21 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.76
- QQQ: $683.86 | 50 SMA $718.75 | 200 SMA $642.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $688.95
- IWM: $291.34 | 50 SMA $291.02 | 200 SMA $264.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.99
- VIX: 18.88 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.679%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.88 | 44.71 | 39.8 | $738.76 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| QQQ | $683.86 | 41.14 | 57.8 | $688.95 | Bearish | 6.06 |
| IWM | $291.34 | 40.43 | 0.0 | $292.99 | Bearish | 4.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.88 | 60.07 | 40.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| TNX | 46.79 β² | 73.00 | 34.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.72 | 44.71 | 30.3 | $371.69 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| DXY | 101.47 | 61.61 | 12.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.58 | 41.21 | 18.8 | $52.14 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.77% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 96.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.57 (5d: +7.6%)
- Brent Crude: $96.89 | Spread: $7.32
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.83/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.72
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.917 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.59 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.37 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.564 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.08
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,987,203.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,855,911.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $652.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.88)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.47
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.29% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,926 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.564 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.470, GEX +2.7B, HY OAS 2.77%, breadth 67%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $136.66 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.32) dropped below ZGL (738.72) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (739.17) reclaimed ZGL (738.66) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (β1.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions take center stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forecasting-the-upcoming-week-fed-boe-and-boj-decisions-take-center-stage-202607241928 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:28:47 GMT
[2] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests 0.5800 as bullish momentum fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-tests-05800-as-bullish-momentum-fades-202607241923 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:23:23 GMT
[3] Ethereum: Five-wave impulse complete - Correction to $1,700 before rally to $2,450 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-five-wave-impulse-complete-correction-to-1-700-before-rally-to-2-450-202607241917 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:17:34 GMT
[4] Looks like we don't need to worry about that Fort Knox Gold audit anymore URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/looks-like-we-dont-need-to-worry-about-that-fort-knox-gold-audit-anymore-202607241916 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:16:34 GMT
[5] Is the Gold-Silver ratio still relevant today? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-the-gold-silver-ratio-still-relevant-today-202607241915 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:15:24 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.8 billion/day economic cost