Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 09:03:48 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.43 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 82/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, IFF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 30% (n=225)
- Screener Board Record: 75 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 116 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.08 | 50 SMA $745.05 | 200 SMA $698.21 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.82
- QQQ: $691.62 | 50 SMA $718.75 | 200 SMA $642.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.79
- IWM: $293.18 | 50 SMA $291.02 | 200 SMA $264.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.96
- VIX: 18.94 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.683%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.08 | 44.71 | 39.8 | $738.82 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| QQQ | $691.62 | 41.14 | 57.8 | $695.79 | Neutral | 1.49 |
| IWM | $293.18 | 40.43 | 0.0 | $292.96 | Bearish | 3.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.94 | 60.07 | 40.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| TNX | 46.83 | 73.00 | 34.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.92 | 44.71 | 30.3 | $371.62 | Neutral | 1.04 |
| DXY | 101.50 | 62.05 | 12.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.62 | 41.21 | 18.8 | $35.74 | Neutral | 1.00 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 96.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.41 (5d: +7.4%)
- Brent Crude: $91.69 | Spread: $2.28
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.41/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.38
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.917 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.588 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.409 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.613 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $651.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.08)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,667 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.613 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.470, GEX +2.7B, HY OAS 2.68%, breadth 60%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.49 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (740.49) reclaimed ZGL (738.82) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 9 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 71 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.48%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (β1.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Belgium Leading Indicator below expectations (-10.2) in July: Actual (-11.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-leading-indicator-below-expectations-102-in-july-actual-119-202607241300 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 13:00:00 GMT
[2] XRP Price Forecast: XRP remains pressured despite the launch of institutional-focused Ripple Mint URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-forecast-xrp-remains-pressured-despite-the-launch-of-institutional-focused-ripple-mint-202607241300 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 13:00:00 GMT
[3] European Central Bank: September hike risk rises with oil and PMIs - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-september-hike-risk-rises-with-oil-and-pmis-commerzbank-202607241257 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:57:40 GMT
[4] Euro pauses near 12-week high against Yen despite upbeat Eurozone PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pauses-near-12-week-high-against-yen-despite-upbeat-eurozone-pmi-202607241247 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:47:45 GMT
[5] What will it do with Oil at $100? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/what-will-it-do-with-oil-at-100-202607241242 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:42:37 GMT
[6] United Kingdom: Energy shock keeps risks elevated - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-energy-shock-keeps-risks-elevated-rabobank-202607241241 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:41:24 GMT
[7] Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-settles-near-65-000-as-oils-march-toward-100-fails-to-spook-the-market-202607241236 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:36:48 GMT
[8] Economists agree: Bank of England to stay on hold amid easing inflation outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-bank-of-england-to-stay-on-hold-amid-easing-inflation-outlook-202607241233 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:33:21 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[BREAKING] [1] EU sanctions Iranian judges and cyber figure over rights abuses Time: 2026-07-24T12:43:47.356Z
[BREAKING] [2] Jordan says it downed seven Iranian missiles and six drones Time: 2026-07-24T12:38:50.052Z
[3] Cleric says US has arms, but God backs Iran Time: 2026-07-24T12:26:11.197Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 17.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS340 (+580% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost