Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 00:00:57 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.52 | 50 SMA $745.08 | 200 SMA $697.86 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.7
- QQQ: $693.30 | 50 SMA $719.17 | 200 SMA $642.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.94
- IWM: $291.72 | 50 SMA $290.88 | 200 SMA $264.20 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.35
- VIX: 18.70 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.703%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.52 | 51.52 | 42.0 | $744.70 | Bearish | 3.67 |
| QQQ | $693.30 | 41.43 | 64.4 | $695.94 | Bearish | 2.82 |
| IWM | $291.72 | 40.38 | 0.0 | $295.35 | Bearish | 3.78 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.70 | 51.94 | 33.8 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| TNX | 47.03 | 70.78 | 32.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.37 | 56.83 | 30.1 | $366.68 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| DXY | 101.43 | 60.82 | 13.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.07 | 51.04 | 20.4 | $35.98 | Neutral | 1.04 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 96.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $92.36 (5d: +12.0%)
- Brent Crude: $100.55 | Spread: $8.19
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.10/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.38
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.394 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.603 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.08
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,038,321.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,787,927.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $651.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $738 (Spot: $738.52)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.43
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,404 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 9 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 71 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 16 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 16 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_settled_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.48%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (β1.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Top 3 Price Predictions: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC stalls near 50-day EMA, ETH extends losses, XRP struggles at key resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-predictions-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-stalls-near-50-day-ema-eth-extends-losses-xrp-struggles-at-key-resistance-202607240345 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 03:45:02 GMT
[2] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retains bearish bias heading into the Fed week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-retains-bearish-bias-heading-into-the-fed-week-202607240326 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 03:26:57 GMT
[3] United States Dollar Index holds gains near 101.50 on revival of hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-gains-near-10150-on-revival-of-hawkish-fed-bets-202607240322 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 03:22:58 GMT
[4] Uniswap launches permissioned pools for v4 to bring compliant assets to AMMs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/uniswap-launches-permissioned-pools-for-v4-to-bring-compliant-assets-to-amms-202607240312 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 03:12:55 GMT
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $57.50 despite rising Fed rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-gains-above-5750-despite-rising-fed-rate-hike-odds-202607240239 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 02:39:21 GMT
[6] British Pound rebounds above 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rebounds-above-13300-ahead-of-uk-retail-sales-data-202607240219 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 02:19:45 GMT
[7] Canadian Dollar edges higher vs soft USD; bulls seem hesitant amid mixed cues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-edges-higher-vs-soft-usd-bulls-seem-hesitant-amid-mixed-cues-202607240206 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 02:06:10 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Hormuz traffic falls to one as US-Iran fighting escalates Time: 2026-07-24T03:52:16.995Z
[2] Oil rally hardens Tehran's stance on US talks Time: 2026-07-24T03:34:00.000Z
[BREAKING] [3] Iran's foreign minister warns asset seizures could trigger chaos Time: 2026-07-24T03:09:21.264Z
[4] Four killed in US missile strike near Ahvaz - IRGC outlet Time: 2026-07-24T02:30:05.015Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 20 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost