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2026-W30

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-23 09:41:04 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.490 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 62% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +4.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 4.94 above-trend
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” dark pool, gamma, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.490; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Regime: low β€” Calm regime β€” balanced board
  • Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
  • Shorts: BKH, IFF

Track Record

  • AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 38% (n=233) | 5d 31% (n=221)
  • Screener Board Record: 69 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 112 open

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $740.53 | 50 SMA $745.08 | 200 SMA $697.86 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.49
  • QQQ: $694.82 | 50 SMA $719.17 | 200 SMA $642.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.92
  • IWM: $291.78 | 50 SMA $290.88 | 200 SMA $264.20 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.2
  • VIX: 18.90 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.705%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $740.53 51.52 42.0 $747.49 Bearish 2.57
QQQ $694.82 41.43 64.4 $706.92 Bearish 3.52
IWM $291.78 40.38 0.0 $295.20 Bearish 3.29

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.90 51.94 33.8 $10.52 Neutral 0.61
TNX 47.05 70.78 32.9 - - -
GLD $372.95 56.83 30.1 $366.69 Neutral 0.85
DXY 101.45 61.09 13.6 - - -
SLV $52.29 51.04 20.4 $35.98 Neutral 0.96

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
  • DIX Signal: Strong buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 93.3% 0/0
Energy 84.2% 0/0
Financials 79.4% 0/0
Health Care 70.4% 0/0
Real Estate 70.4% 0/0
Industrials 65.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 64.7% 0/0
Materials 45.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 41.1% 0/0
Communication Services 40.0% 0/0
Technology 36.9% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.87 (5d: +10.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $86.66 | Spread: $-4.21
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.2800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2000/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.77/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $60.15
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.897 normal
SPY / DXY -0.589 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.397 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.587 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 110,813.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 92,362.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $15.0B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $740.53)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.71%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.45
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,024 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] DIX at 0.490 β€” strong dark pool buying activity.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 62%.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.15 (vs 20d avg 113.68, +2.8Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.50%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (↑1.3% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (2):

[1] Mexican Peso: Slightly stronger MXN outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-slightly-stronger-mxn-outlook-commerzbank-202607231323 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:23:54 GMT

[2] Lagarde speech: Some asked whether we should consider a hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lagarde-speech-some-asked-whether-we-should-consider-a-hike-202607231316 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:16:49 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Video: Pezeshkian hosts Iraqi PM in Tehran, days after Washington visit Time: 2026-07-23T13:27:32.259Z

[2] Israel sees chance to widen Abraham Accords amid Iran war Time: 2026-07-23T13:20:44.254Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 145 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β€” 25.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 440
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 33.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS14800 (+29500% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost