Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 22:01:11 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.490 above 0.45 and rising — institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 150 high · VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $88, watch for margin compression); DIX rising to 0.490 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $746.03 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
QQQ: $703.71 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
IWM: $293.34 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $269.8
VIX: 16.64 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.657%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$746.03	51.39	42.4	$748.05	Neutral	0.83
QQQ	$703.71	38.87	64.3	$707.02	Neutral	1.36
IWM	$293.34	42.79	0.0	$269.80	Bearish	7.19

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.64	51.82	42.0	$10.50	Neutral	0.76
TNX	46.57	72.53	37.2	-	-	-
GLD	$378.07	55.33	29.4	$370.94	Bearish	0.29
DXY	101.14	45.66	15.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.84	48.76	20.0	$41.30	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
DIX Signal: Strong buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	93.3%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Financials	82.1%	0/0
Health Care	74.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	73.5%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Industrials	62.7%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Materials	50.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	49.2%	0/0
Technology	35.4%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $87.93 (5d: +11.4%)
Brent Crude: $95.46 | Spread: $7.53
RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.61/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.895	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.437	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.324	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.533	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,068.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,744.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $747 (Spot: $746.03)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
DXY: 101.14
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,779 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~2h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~2h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] DIX at 0.490 — strong dark pool buying activity.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.533 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.4σ), floor $75.00 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] SKEW at 150 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Earnings:

GOOGL: EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (↑19.1% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (14):

[1] Australian Dollar gathers strength above 0.7000 on resilient labor data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gathers-strength-above-07000-on-resilient-australian-labor-data-202607230151 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:51:57 GMT

[2] Australian Dollar hits one-week top vs New Zealand Dollar on upbeat Aussie jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rallies-to-over-one-week-high-vs-nzd-on-upbeat-aussie-jobs-data-202607230147 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:47:34 GMT

[3] Australian Dollar gains against Japanese Yen following employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gains-against-japanese-yen-following-employment-data-202607230147 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:47:15 GMT

[4] Japan's Katayama: Ready to take decisive action on foreign exchange as needed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-ready-to-take-decisive-action-on-foreign-exchange-as-needed-202607230132 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:32:10 GMT

[5] Senate Republicans release updated CLARITY Act with new crypto ethics restrictions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/senate-republicans-release-updated-clarity-act-with-new-crypto-ethics-restrictions-202607230131 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:31:43 GMT

[6] Australia Part-Time Employment: 47K (June) vs 35.2K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-part-time-employment-47k-june-vs-352k-202607230130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:30:37 GMT

[7] Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at 76.3K, above expectations (15K) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-employment-change-sa-came-in-at-763k-above-expectations-15k-in-june-202607230130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:30:05 GMT

[8] Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with forecasts (4.4%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-unemployment-rate-sa-in-line-with-forecasts-44-in-june-202607230130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:30:04 GMT

[9] Australia Participation Rate above expectations (66.7%) in June: Actual (67%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-participation-rate-above-expectations-667-in-june-actual-67-202607230130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:30:04 GMT

[10] Australia Full-Time Employment climbed from previous 5.2K to 29.3K in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-full-time-employment-climbed-from-previous-52k-to-293k-in-june-202607230130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:30:03 GMT

[11] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7906 vs. 6.7933 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67906-vs-67933-previous-202607230115 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:15:35 GMT

[12] Canadian Dollar holds gains vs soft USD as rallying oil prices counter trade risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-holds-gains-vs-soft-usd-as-rallying-oil-prices-counter-trade-risks-202607230110 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:10:09 GMT

[13] WTI climbs above $87.00 as Middle East conflict threatens key choke points URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-climbs-above-8700-as-middle-east-conflict-threatens-key-choke-points-202607230103 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 01:03:54 GMT

[14] Japanese Yen strengthens on BoJ hawkish signals, intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-on-boj-hawkish-signals-intervention-risks-202607230041 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:41:21 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] FDD president expects Trump to 'finish the job' in Iran Time: 2026-07-23T01:58:46.201Z

[2] US issues worldwide travel caution over Middle East tensions Time: 2026-07-23T01:38:04.578Z

[3] Two Chinese supertankers with Saudi crude head toward Bab el-Mandeb Time: 2026-07-23T01:32:40.146Z

[4] Death toll from reported US strike near Shalamcheh border rises to three Time: 2026-07-23T00:58:24.309Z

[5] Iran used Russian-enhanced Shahed drones in strikes on CIA sites - Reuters Time: 2026-07-23T00:53:01.812Z

[6] IRGC channel reports explosions in Ahvaz Time: 2026-07-23T00:47:49.701Z

[7] Iran official reports strikes near Andimeshk and Ramshir Time: 2026-07-23T00:41:26.906Z

[8] Hardline outlet reports new US strike on Bushehr Time: 2026-07-23T00:35:14.800Z

[9] Two explosions reported in Iran's Islamabad-e Gharb Time: 2026-07-23T00:25:23.738Z

[10] Missile strike reported near Iran's Andimeshk city Time: 2026-07-23T00:20:28.508Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily — 17.0% of normal
Throughput: 11.7% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 200
Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost