Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 09:44:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.56 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $86, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 4.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $747.46 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.21
- QQQ: $705.69 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.12
- IWM: $295.63 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.61
- VIX: 17.20 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.642%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $747.46 | 51.39 | 42.4 | $748.21 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| QQQ | $705.69 | 38.87 | 64.3 | $709.12 | Neutral | 1.49 |
| IWM | $295.63 | 42.79 | 0.0 | $295.61 | Bearish | 1.75 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.20 | 51.82 | 42.0 | $10.49 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| TNX | 46.42 | 72.53 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $380.29 | 55.33 | 29.4 | $370.97 | Bearish | 0.26 |
| DXY | 101.08 | 44.65 | 15.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.22 | 48.76 | 20.0 | $38.23 | Bearish | 0.41 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 470
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 73.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 50.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 32.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $86.36 (5d: +9.4%)
- Brent Crude: $93.28 | Spread: $6.92
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.48/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.23
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.92 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.437 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.309 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.53 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 148,074.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 165,804.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $23.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $752 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $747.46)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.08
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,787B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,919B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,693B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,652 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.53 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +4.8B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 61%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.34 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (745.65) dropped below ZGL (748.19) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] SPY (744.95) reclaimed ZGL (742.67) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Earnings:
- GOOGL: EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Crude Oil rally weighs on stocks as Dollar strengthens [video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/crude-oil-rally-weighs-on-stocks-as-dollar-strengthens-video-202607221321 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:21:42 GMT
[2] Japanese Yen: BoJ hints at faster hikes - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hints-at-faster-hikes-bny-202607221318 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:18:44 GMT
[3] BTC/USD - Sell trade idea [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/btc-usd-sell-trade-idea-video-202607221318 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:18:27 GMT
[4] Trump: 'US will bomb and destroy' Iranian bridges or power plants URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-us-will-bomb-and-destroy-iranian-bridges-or-power-plants-202607221318 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:18:25 GMT
[5] Brent crude eyes $120 as geopolitical risks and technicals turn bullish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-crude-eyes-120-as-geopolitical-risks-and-technicals-turn-bullish-202607221316 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:16:07 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily β 23.3% of normal
- Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 200
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS310 (+520% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost