Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 08:01:25 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +10.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.52 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 152 high · VVIX/VIX 5.65 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $85, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 4.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $748.06 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.97
QQQ: $708.62 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.96
IWM: $296.52 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.32
VIX: 17.05 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.628%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$748.06	51.39	42.4	$745.97	Neutral	1.15
QQQ	$708.62	38.87	64.3	$702.96	Neutral	0.52
IWM	$296.52	42.79	0.0	$296.32	Bearish	1.57

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.05	51.82	42.0	$10.00	None	None
TNX	46.28	72.53	37.2	-	-	-
GLD	$374.47	55.33	29.4	$367.93	Neutral	0.56
DXY	101.16	45.90	15.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.20	48.76	20.0	$36.09	Neutral	0.64

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.77B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Industrials	58.2%	0/0
Utilities	53.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	52.5%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	36.9%	0/0
Materials	33.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $85.34 (5d: +8.1%)
Brent Crude: $92.20 | Spread: $6.86
RBOB Gasoline: $3.2400/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.08/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.40

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.92	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.439	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.309	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.524	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 616,158.0
0DTE Put Volume: 784,047.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $104.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $754 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $748.06)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 101.16
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,787B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,919B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,693B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,972 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: pct_above_50sma is STALE (~7h old vs an expected max of ~6h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.524 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +4.8B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.85 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.0σ), floor $75.00 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] SKEW at 152 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~296h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.55%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Earnings:

GOOGL: EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (↑17.8% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: keeps the Bullish bias intact above 101.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-keeps-the-bullish-bias-intact-above-10100-202607221147 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:47:24 GMT

[2] Gold hits two-week high as traders weigh Middle East risks, Fed outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hits-two-week-high-as-traders-weigh-middle-east-risks-fed-outlook-202607221146 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:46:32 GMT

[3] Japanese Yen: Hawkish BoJ signals versus Fed risk - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hawkish-boj-signals-versus-fed-risk-rabobank-202607221146 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:46:06 GMT

[4] South Korea crypto volumes shrink as retail investors shift to stocks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/south-korea-crypto-volumes-shrink-as-retail-investors-shift-to-stocks-202607221142 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:42:09 GMT

[5] Crypto finds fresh momentum on clarity act hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-finds-fresh-momentum-on-clarity-act-hopes-202607221139 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:39:55 GMT

[6] USD is little changed as Oil jumps URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-is-little-changed-as-oil-jumps-202607221126 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:26:12 GMT

[7] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Solana, Cardano & Crypto - European Wrap 22 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-cardano-crypto-european-wrap-22-july-202607221124 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:24:46 GMT

[8] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD remains below 50-day EMA near the confluence of 1.3400 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-remains-below-50-day-ema-near-the-confluence-of-13400-202607221122 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:22:14 GMT

[9] British Pound: Heavy trade as BoE seen adjusting - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-heavy-trade-as-boe-seen-adjusting-bbh-202607221120 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:20:43 GMT

[10] Silver price edges higher as geopolitical tensions offset inflation concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-edges-higher-as-geopolitical-tensions-offset-inflation-concerns-202607221117 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:17:37 GMT

[11] Euro: Drifting toward ECB test - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-drifting-toward-ecb-test-ing-202607221106 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:06:50 GMT

[12] South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.3% in May from previous 1.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-retail-sales-yoy-increased-to-23-in-may-from-previous-13-202607221100 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:00:12 GMT

[13] United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to 1.9% in July 17 from previous -2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-increased-to-19-in-july-17-from-previous-27-202607221100 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:00:02 GMT

[14] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP recovery slows amid ETF inflows, US-Iran persistent strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-recovery-slows-amid-etf-inflows-us-iran-persistent-strikes-202607221100 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[15] Euro holds near five-week highs against Yen despite BoJ tightening rumours URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-near-five-week-highs-against-yen-despite-hawkish-boj-comments-202607221046 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:46:41 GMT

[16] Markets eye big-tech earnings amid rising Oil and bond yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-eye-big-tech-earnings-amid-rising-oil-and-bond-yields-202607221030 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:30:44 GMT

[17] Gold daily: The bounce has found its feet but not yet broken free URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-daily-the-bounce-has-found-its-feet-but-not-yet-broken-free-202607221026 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:26:46 GMT

[18] World Bank warns of risks of global slowdown, renewed inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/world-bank-warns-of-risks-of-global-slowdown-renewed-inflation-202607221024 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:24:49 GMT

[19] US - Fed preview: A divided hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-fed-preview-a-divided-hold-202607221020 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:20:54 GMT

[20] US-Iran conflict intensifies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-iran-conflict-intensifies-202607221016 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:16:39 GMT

[21] Did chip traders buy the bottom too early? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/did-chip-traders-buy-the-bottom-too-early-202607221007 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 10:07:36 GMT

[22] United States Sec. of State Rubio: Iran is in a lot of trouble URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sec-of-state-rubio-iran-is-in-a-lot-of-trouble-202607220957 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:57:25 GMT

[23] Gold Price Forecast: 3 scenarios that could define the rest of 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-3-scenarios-that-could-define-the-rest-of-2026-202607220956 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:56:56 GMT

[24] US Dollar: Trade tariffs to reshape FX volatility - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-trade-tariffs-to-reshape-fx-volatility-mufg-202607220954 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:54:32 GMT

[25] Oil prices jump as markets wait for key earnings releases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-prices-jump-as-markets-wait-for-key-earnings-releases-202607220950 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:50:28 GMT

[26] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds gains above $4,100 undaunted by risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-gains-above-4-100-undaunted-by-risk-off-markets-202607220937 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:37:25 GMT

[27] Japanese Yen: Technical outlook weakens against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-technical-outlook-weakens-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202607220936 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:36:38 GMT

[28] Swiss Franc edges higher as US-Iran tensions, higher Swiss yields sustain support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-edges-higher-as-us-iran-tensions-higher-swiss-yields-sustain-support-202607220935 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:35:31 GMT

[29] UK core and services inflation remains elevated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-core-and-services-inflation-remains-elevated-202607220931 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:31:19 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (9):

[BREAKING] [1] US struck Iran's Larak Island, Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Tasnim says Time: 2026-07-22T11:50:20.458Z

[BREAKING] [2] Saudi Arabia sounds emergency alert in Dammam Time: 2026-07-22T11:47:06.473Z

[BREAKING] [3] Bahrain sounds sirens, urges people to seek shelter Time: 2026-07-22T11:43:12.651Z

[BREAKING] [4] Iran says it targeted King Faisal and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan Time: 2026-07-22T11:02:48.117Z

[5] Iran denies nuclear activity at Pickaxe Mountain Time: 2026-07-22T11:00:23.144Z

[6] Four more tankers changed course in Red Sea after Houthi threats Time: 2026-07-22T10:59:30.351Z

[7] EU naval force advises ships with US, Israeli or Saudi links to avoid Red Sea Time: 2026-07-22T10:48:02.813Z

[8] Pahlavi urges Iranians to prioritize safety amid attacks Time: 2026-07-22T09:59:40.274Z

[9] Iran violated memorandum by attacking commercial shipping, US says Time: 2026-07-22T09:53:13.589Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily — 23.0% of normal
Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 400
Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost