Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-22 04:01:06 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +10.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.52 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 152 high · VVIX/VIX 5.65 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $85, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 4.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $748.06 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.97
QQQ: $708.62 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.96
IWM: $296.52 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.32
VIX: 17.05 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.628%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$748.06	51.39	42.4	$745.97	Neutral	1.15
QQQ	$708.62	38.87	64.3	$702.96	Neutral	0.52
IWM	$296.52	42.79	0.0	$296.32	Bearish	1.57

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.05	51.82	42.0	$10.00	None	None
TNX	46.28	72.53	37.2	-	-	-
GLD	$374.47	55.33	29.4	$367.93	Neutral	0.56
DXY	101.16	45.90	15.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.20	48.76	20.0	$36.09	Neutral	0.64

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.77B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Industrials	58.2%	0/0
Utilities	53.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	52.5%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	36.9%	0/0
Materials	33.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $85.34 (5d: +8.1%)
Brent Crude: $92.20 | Spread: $6.86
RBOB Gasoline: $3.2400/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.08/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.40

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.92	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.439	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.309	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.524	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 616,158.0
0DTE Put Volume: 784,047.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $104.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $748.06)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 101.16
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,787B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,919B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,693B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,814 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~296h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.524 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +4.8B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.85 (vs 20d avg 112.66, +2.0σ), floor $75.00 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] SKEW at 152 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.55%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Earnings:

GOOGL: EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA: EPS Est. $0.54 (↑17.8% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] BoJ says open to faster rate hike pace as yen adds price risk - Bloomberg URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-says-open-to-faster-rate-hike-pace-as-yen-adds-price-risk-bloomberg-202607220748 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:48:21 Z

[2] Gold ease from two-week top as energy-driven inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rallies-to-over-two-week-high-eyes-4-150-as-traders-track-us-iran-diplomacy-efforts-202607220340 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:46:42 Z

[3] WTI Oil hits fresh six-week highs at $86.00 as supply concerns rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-hits-fresh-six-week-highs-at-8600-as-tensions-in-the-middle-east-escalate-202607220745 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:45:24 Z

[4] Controladora Vuela (VLRS) reports Q2 loss, beats revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/controladora-vuela-vlrs-reports-q2-loss-beats-revenue-estimates-202607220738 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:38:56 Z

[5] Indian Rupee resumes decline as Mideast supply risks fuel oil price rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-resumes-decline-as-oil-prices-rise-further-202607220544 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:37:35 Z

[6] British Pound: Inflation trend supports softer Sterling - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-inflation-trend-supports-softer-sterling-ing-202607220736 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:36:32 Z

[7] Forex Today: US Dollar and Oil continue to rise as tensions in Middle East escalate further URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-and-oil-continue-to-rise-as-tensions-in-middle-east-escalate-further-202607220735 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:35:07 Z

[8] Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate below forecasts (6%): Actual (5.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-bank-indonesia-rate-below-forecasts-6-actual-575-202607220731 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:31:48 Z

[9] Canadian Dollar receives support from higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-receives-support-from-higher-oil-prices-202607220728 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:28:00 Z

[10] Silver Price Forecast: Recovery hits 20-day EMA roadblock URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-recovery-hits-20-day-ema-roadblock-202607220722 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:22:59 Z

[11] Japanese Yen: Fresh lows signal further losses against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-fresh-lows-signal-further-losses-against-us-dollar-uob-202607220721 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:21:17 Z

[12] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates near 1.4100 as bulls await 200-SMA breakout on H4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-consolidates-near-14100-as-bulls-await-200-sma-breakout-on-h4-202607220706 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:06:33 Z

[13] Euro: Asset flows decouple from currency - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-asset-flows-decouple-from-currency-bny-202607220704 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:04:52 Z

[14] New Zealand Dollar gives away gains as Iran's war offsets RBNZ's hawkishness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gives-away-gains-as-irans-war-offsets-rbnzs-hawkishness-202607220704 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:04:47 Z

[15] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Softens to near 101.00, while technicals remain bullish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-softens-to-near-10100-while-technicals-remain-bullish-202607220702 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:02:51 Z

[16] British Pound: Fiscal risks cloud outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fiscal-risks-cloud-outlook-commerzbank-202607220649 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:49:09 Z

[17] Equities: Chip rebound offsets rates repricing - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-chip-rebound-offsets-rates-repricing-deutsche-bank-202607220633 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:33:53 Z

[18] Euro gathers strength against British Pound after UK June CPI inflation falls by more than expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gathers-strength-against-british-pound-after-uk-june-cpi-inflation-falls-by-more-than-expected-202607220633 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:33:04 Z

[19] United Kingdom CPI inflation eases to 2.6% YoY in June vs. 2.7% forecast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-cpi-set-to-show-receding-inflation-in-june-as-gbp-usd-fails-at-may-highs-202607220200 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:30:09 Z

[20] Gold: Safe-haven demand offsets energy risks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-safe-haven-demand-offsets-energy-risks-ing-202607220625 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:25:46 Z

[21] British Pound remains depressed against US Dollar following soft UK inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-depressed-against-us-dollar-following-soft-uk-inflation-data-202607220625 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:25:04 Z

[22] British Pound attracts bids against Japanese Yen after mixed UK CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-attracts-bids-against-japanese-yen-after-mixed-uk-cpi-data-202607220623 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:23:16 Z

[23] Euro: Mild downside within defined range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-mild-downside-within-defined-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202607220614 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:14:04 Z

[24] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Likely to extend rally towards 164.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-likely-to-extend-rally-towards-16400-202607220612 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:12:59 Z

[25] United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.3% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-price-index-mom-climbed-from-previous-02-to-03-in-june-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:29 Z

[26] United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-3-in-june-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:26 Z

[27] United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a below expectations (0.4%) in June: Actual (0%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-producer-price-index-output-mom-nsa-below-expectations-04-in-june-actual-0-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:23 Z

[28] United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.5%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-core-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-26-above-forecasts-25-in-june-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:21 Z

[29] United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-price-index-mom-in-line-with-expectations-01-in-june-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:20 Z

[30] United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6% below forecasts (2.7%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-26-below-forecasts-27-in-june-202607220600 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 06:00:16 Z

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran says drones target US facilities in Jordan and Bahrain Time: 2026-07-22T07:22:13.463Z

[2] French shipping firm to impose emergency fuel surcharge after renewed Hormuz tensions Time: 2026-07-22T07:20:37.872Z

[3] Iran's interior minister to travel to India for BRICS meeting Time: 2026-07-22T06:55:33.801Z

[BREAKING] [4] Iran hangs protester on accusations of collaborating with Israel, US Time: 2026-07-22T06:09:43.338Z

[5] Airstrikes hit Ilam and Baneh in western Iran - state media Time: 2026-07-22T06:04:37.261Z

[6] Iran denies assaulting two French Embassy employees in Tehran Time: 2026-07-22T05:20:09.266Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 144 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily — 23.3% of normal
Throughput: 14.9% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost