Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 21:19:23 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.452 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.43 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.65 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.452 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, IFF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 40% (n=225) | 5d 31% (n=219)
- Screener Board Record: 63 closed (hit rate 56%) Β· 108 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.06 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.97
- QQQ: $708.62 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.96
- IWM: $296.52 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.32
- VIX: 17.05 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.628%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.06 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $745.97 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| QQQ | $708.62 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $702.96 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| IWM | $296.52 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $296.32 | Bearish | 1.57 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.05 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 46.28 | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.47 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.93 | Neutral | 0.56 |
| DXY | 101.15 | 49.32 | 15.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.20 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $36.09 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 58.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 36.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.04 (5d: +6.8%)
- Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $6.95
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.52/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.50
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.40
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.919 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.43 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.312 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.467 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.67
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,658,286.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,622,060.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $619.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $748.06)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,787B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,694B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,479 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +4.8B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.85 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] Screener: XYL β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 50% (n=1652)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ADP β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 50% (n=1652)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] SPY (744.95) reclaimed ZGL (742.67) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Euro holds gains above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB expectations despite US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-above-11400-on-hawkish-ecb-expectations-despite-us-iran-tensions-202607220030 Published: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:30:48 Z
[2] Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below expectations (Β₯-120B) in June: Actual (Β₯-406.9B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-merchandise-trade-balance-total-below-expectations-y-120b-in-june-actual-y-4069b-202607212350 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 23:50:03 Z
[3] Japan Exports (YoY) registered at 19.3% above expectations (18.6%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-exports-yoy-registered-at-193-above-expectations-186-in-june-202607212350 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 23:50:01 Z
[4] Japan Imports (YoY) above expectations (21%) in June: Actual (25.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-imports-yoy-above-expectations-21-in-june-actual-254-202607212350 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 23:50:01 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] US attack reported in Kabudarahang, Hamadan province Time: 2026-07-22T00:57:52.284Z
[2] US completes 11th night of strikes against Iran - CENTCOM Time: 2026-07-22T00:44:21.693Z
[3] US attack near Sirik in Hormozgan province - report Time: 2026-07-22T00:41:31.715Z
[4] IRGC says operation against US continues Time: 2026-07-22T00:37:05.634Z
[5] Trump to attend transfer ceremony for US troops killed in Iran attacks Time: 2026-07-22T00:33:10.519Z
[6] US airstrike targeted military site near Tabriz, official says Time: 2026-07-22T00:17:34.903Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 11 of 60 normal daily β 18.3% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 351
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost