Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 14:45:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.69 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 86/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 86 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.18 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.36
- QQQ: $709.21 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.79
- IWM: $296.09 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.71
- VIX: 17.09 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.632%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.18 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $745.36 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| QQQ | $709.21 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $702.79 | Neutral | 0.66 |
| IWM | $296.09 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $294.71 | Neutral | 1.34 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.09 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.46 |
| TNX | 46.32 βΌ | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.57 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.86 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| DXY | 101.18 | 49.75 | 15.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.28 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $39.18 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 36.9% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.45 (5d: +6.1%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.67
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.55/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.28
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.35
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.919 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.424 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.297 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.486 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,134,948.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,869,525.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $524.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $748.18)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,924B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,700B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,400 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.15 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (744.95) reclaimed ZGL (742.67) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (744.98) dropped below ZGL (745.70) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=116600B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] United States Dollar Index hits one-week high as US-Iran tensions intensify URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-hits-one-week-high-as-us-iran-tensions-intensify-202607211825 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 18:25:57 Z
[2] Indonesian Rupiah: Tentative stabilisation with key levels against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-tentative-stabilisation-with-key-levels-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202607211817 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 18:17:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran used new tactics to evade US defenses - CBS Time: 2026-07-21T18:35:03.088Z
[2] Israeli officials expect Trump to escalate Iran campaign - Jerusalem Post Time: 2026-07-21T18:33:10.879Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 187
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS295 (+490% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost