Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 10:47:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +3.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +7.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.31% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 61% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $746.92 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.11
QQQ: $707.10 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $701.14
IWM: $294.72 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.68
VIX: 17.37 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.624%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$746.92	51.01	42.0	$745.11	Neutral	0.79
QQQ	$707.10	38.57	67.0	$701.14	Neutral	0.79
IWM	$294.72	36.33	0.1	$294.68	Bearish	1.98

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.37	59.82	37.9	$10.50	Neutral	1.29
TNX	46.24 ▲	73.33	37.0	-	-	-
GLD	$373.15	49.08	26.8	$367.70	Neutral	0.67
DXY	101.13	48.99	15.2	-	-	-
SLV	$53.34	44.09	17.9	$50.93	Neutral	0.64

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.8%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	86.6%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Real Estate	78.6%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Energy	57.9%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	50.8%	0/0
Utilities	46.7%	0/0
Materials	45.8%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0
Technology	38.5%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.90 (5d: +6.7%)
Brent Crude: $91.83 | Spread: $6.93
RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.68/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.12
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.914	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.489	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.341	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.491	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,178,648.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,302,604.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $185.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.92)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.62%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
DXY: 101.13
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,816B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,927B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,729B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,738 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.68 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.4σ), floor $75.00 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[INFO] Screener: FITB — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 54% (n=2118)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: WTFC — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=1363)). Worth a look.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 6 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 68 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 14 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 12 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 13 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.53%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (7):

[1] Euro: Range-bound against US Dollar ahead of ECB - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-bound-against-us-dollar-ahead-of-ecb-scotiabank-202607211440 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:40:40 Z

[2] The new battle for AI: Open models challenge the economics of the boom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-new-battle-for-ai-open-models-challenge-the-economics-of-the-boom-202607211430 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:30:09 Z

[3] British Pound: Fiscal uncertainty caps upside against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fiscal-uncertainty-caps-upside-against-us-dollar-bbh-202607211428 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:28:18 Z

[4] Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) forecast: Bulls watching the $1074-$1003 support zone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eli-lilly-and-company-lly-forecast-bulls-watching-the-1074-1003-support-zone-202607211427 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:27:35 Z

[5] Canadian Dollar: Mean reversion faces tariff headwinds - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-mean-reversion-faces-tariff-headwinds-societe-generale-202607211409 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:09:24 Z

[6] US Dollar: Complacency risk supports Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-complacency-risk-supports-dollar-ing-202607211354 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:54:48 Z

[7] Canadian Dollar retreats as new US tariffs, softer-than-expected inflation weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-retreats-as-new-us-tariffs-softer-than-expected-inflation-weigh-202607211353 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:53:32 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Pakistani PM voices concern over Mideast escalation, urges restraint Time: 2026-07-21T14:41:00.937Z

[2] Supertanker owner offers crews six months' extra pay for Hormuz voyage - Bloomberg Time: 2026-07-21T14:23:17.605Z

[3] Israel believes Iran moved enriched uranium to underground site - CNN Time: 2026-07-21T14:02:55.394Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 490
Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 43.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost