Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 10:35:36 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.50 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.57 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 61% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.81 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.12
- QQQ: $706.51 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $701.12
- IWM: $295.00 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.7
- VIX: 17.36 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.626%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.81 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $745.12 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| QQQ | $706.51 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $701.12 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $295.00 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $294.70 | Bearish | 1.86 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.36 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 46.26 βΌ | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $373.14 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.67 | Neutral | 0.66 |
| DXY | 101.06 | 47.80 | 14.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.23 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $39.21 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 38.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.39 (5d: +6.0%)
- Brent Crude: $91.34 | Spread: $6.95
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.21
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.40
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.915 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.502 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.337 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.493 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,005,758.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,104,478.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $157.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.81)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.06
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,816B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,927B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,729B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,738 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.28 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.5Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: FITB β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 54% (n=2118)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: WTFC β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=1363)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ZION β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=1363)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: RGEN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=1363)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: MSCI β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=1363)). Worth a look.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 6 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 68 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost