Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-21 09:47:36 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.51 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.52 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.68 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 61% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.48 | 50 SMA $744.55 | 200 SMA $697.07 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.5
- QQQ: $704.03 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $641.32 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $700.99
- IWM: $293.35 | 50 SMA $290.41 | 200 SMA $263.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.83
- VIX: 17.96 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.636%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.48 | 51.01 | 42.0 | $742.50 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| QQQ | $704.03 | 38.57 | 67.0 | $700.99 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| IWM | $293.35 | 36.33 | 0.1 | $294.83 | Bearish | 2.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.96 | 59.82 | 37.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| TNX | 46.36 | 73.33 | 37.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.36 | 49.08 | 26.8 | $367.65 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| DXY | 101.10 | 48.47 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.76 | 44.09 | 17.9 | $50.93 | Neutral | 0.72 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 63.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 38.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.56 (5d: +6.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.16 | Spread: $6.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.34
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.38
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.911 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.513 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.349 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.52 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 265,908.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 328,124.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $44.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $744.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.10
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,741B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,398 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.05 (vs 20d avg 111.85, +2.5Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (744.95) reclaimed ZGL (742.67) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (744.98) dropped below ZGL (745.70) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Japanese Yen: Japan's fiscal pivot and GPIF flows reshape rates - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-japans-fiscal-pivot-and-gpif-flows-reshape-rates-bny-202607211342 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:42:10 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar dips despite hotter inflation as fimer US Dollar outweighs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-dips-despite-hotter-inflation-as-fimer-us-dollar-outweighs-202607211337 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:37:25 Z
[3] British Pound: Funding concerns weigh on Sterling - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-funding-concerns-weigh-on-sterling-rabobank-202607211328 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:28:41 Z
[4] Canadian Dollar: Tariff risks cap gains against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-tariff-risks-cap-gains-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202607211312 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:12:09 Z
[5] Gold climbs as buyers defend $4,000, hawkish Fed expectations limit upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-buyers-defend-4-000-hawkish-fed-expectations-limit-upside-202607211133 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:07:55 Z
[6] United States Redbook Index (YoY) fell from previous 8.2% to 7.8% in July 17 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-fell-from-previous-82-to-78-in-july-17-202607211255 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:55:00 Z
[7] Euro gains against British Pound as Burnham's fiscal stance weighs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-against-british-pound-as-burnhams-fiscal-stance-weighs-202607211253 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:53:12 Z
[8] New Zealand Dollar: CPI supports further RBNZ hikes - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-cpi-supports-further-rbnz-hikes-bbh-202607211250 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:50:45 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 143 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β 21.7% of normal
- Throughput: 11.7% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost