Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-20 22:01:08 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.437 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.13 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.55 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.437 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 3.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.66 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.9
- QQQ: $695.70 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.0
- IWM: $292.11 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.66
- VIX: 18.65 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.598%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.66 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $745.90 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| QQQ | $695.70 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $600.00 | Bearish | 2.46 |
| IWM | $292.11 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $295.66 | Bearish | 6.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.65 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 45.98 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.88 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $366.23 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| DXY | 101.00 | 48.03 | 27.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.00 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $33.75 | Neutral | 0.77 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 63.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.42 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.92 | Spread: $6.50
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.04/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.94
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.29
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.916 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.55 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.282 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.577 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.66
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,251,400.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,821,227.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $673.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $742 (Spot: $741.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.60%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,741B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,195 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.51 (vs 20d avg 111.32, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.437 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] Screener: DTM β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 51% (n=673)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: MTB β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 48% (n=44)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7917 vs. 6.7948 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67917-vs-67948-previous-202607210115 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:15:47 Z
[2] WTI slips below $82.00 as temporary diplomatic signals emerge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slips-below-8200-as-temporary-diplomatic-signals-emerge-202607210114 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:14:36 Z
[3] Canadian Dollar falls to one-week low vs USD on divergent BoC-Fed bets, Trump tariffs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-falls-to-one-week-low-vs-usd-on-divergent-boc-fed-bets-trump-tariffs-202607210112 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:12:01 Z
[4] Euro declines to near 1.1400 as US launches fresh strikes on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-declines-to-near-11400-as-us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-202607210056 Published: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:56:41 Z
[5] Singapore Dollar: CPI and MAS in focus - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-cpi-and-mas-in-focus-ocbc-202607202359 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:59:00 Z
[6] US President Donald Trump to impose 50% tariff on some Canadian products URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-to-impose-50-tariff-on-some-canadian-products-202607202348 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:48:24 Z
[7] The Japanese Yen is stuck in a stalemate nobody can afford to break URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-is-stuck-in-a-stalemate-nobody-can-afford-to-break-202607202347 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:47:58 Z
[8] The Australian Dollar keeps knocking on a door nobody opens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollar-keeps-knocking-on-a-door-nobody-opens-202607202344 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:44:52 Z
[9] British Pound Sterling greets a new Prime Minister with a three-day slide URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-greets-a-new-prime-minister-with-a-three-day-slide-202607202344 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:44:22 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] IRGC says it struck US drone hangar, military facilities in Kuwait Time: 2026-07-21T01:47:00.933Z
[2] US completes latest strikes against Iran - CENTCOM Time: 2026-07-21T01:31:19.531Z
[3] IRGC says it hit two oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-07-21T01:17:01.951Z
[4] Another tanker reportedly attacked in Strait of Hormuz - Fars Time: 2026-07-21T00:12:01.699Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 142 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 11 of 60 normal daily β 18.3% of normal
- Throughput: 18.3% of normal (1.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 490
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost