Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-20 09:02:59 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.50 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.25 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.80 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 5.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- Headline: Diplomacy dope flutter into a 740 put-wall trapdoor
- Stance: defensive | Drawdown Risk: elevated
- Generated: 2026-07-20T08:30:33-04:00 (accounts/fireworks/models/glm-5p2)
- [AI override: model drawdown_risk says elevated, validated composite band says low]
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, MSM, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, FHI
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 10% (n=225) | 3d 39% (n=219) | 5d 35% (n=204)
- Screener Board Record: 48 closed (hit rate 52%) Β· 108 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.33 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.74
- QQQ: $701.89 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $699.32
- IWM: $294.96 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.47
- VIX: 18.12 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.564%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.33 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $745.74 | Bearish | 1.75 |
| QQQ | $701.89 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $699.32 | Bearish | 1.96 |
| IWM | $294.96 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $295.47 | Bearish | 2.71 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.12 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| TNX | 45.64 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.98 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $366.48 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| DXY | 100.88 | 45.87 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.39 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $42.50 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.15B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 91.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 76.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.96 (5d: +3.3%)
- Brent Crude: $88.56 | Spread: $6.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.78/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.51
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.922 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.497 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.246 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.577 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $109.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.33)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.88
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,823B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,747B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,679 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +5.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $123.96 (vs 20d avg 111.32, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (746.51) reclaimed ZGL (745.74) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 67 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 13 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.52%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.7% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] British Pound: Market calm under Burnham's cautious agenda - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-market-calm-under-burnhams-cautious-agenda-ing-202607201236 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:36:03 Z
[2] Breaking: Canada's headline CPI rose by 2.8% YoY in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-canadas-headline-cpi-rose-by-28-yoy-in-june-202607201231 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:35:03 Z
[3] Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-core-mom-unchanged-at-02-in-june-202607201230 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:40 Z
[4] Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, below expectations (2.9%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-28-below-expectations-29-in-june-202607201230 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[5] Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-mom-registered-at-04-below-expectations-02-in-june-202607201230 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[6] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.1% (June) vs previous 2.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-yoy-21-june-vs-previous-22-202607201230 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[7] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-mom-fell-from-previous-06-to-01-in-june-202607201230 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[8] Houthis declare naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising Middle East tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/houthis-declare-naval-blockade-against-saudi-arabia-raising-middle-east-tensions-202607201227 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:27:33 Z
[9] Norwegian Krone: Range trading view holds against Euro - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-range-trading-view-holds-against-euro-rabobank-202607201224 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:24:33 Z
[10] European Central Bank: Oil risks support a September rate hike - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-oil-risks-support-a-september-rate-hike-commerzbank-202607201216 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:16:23 Z
[11] United Kingdom: Softer CPI supports prolonged BoE hold - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-softer-cpi-supports-prolonged-boe-hold-td-securities-202607201207 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:07:49 Z
[12] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Flag formation backs more downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-bearish-flag-formation-backs-more-downside-202607201157 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:57:17 Z
[13] New Zealand Dollar: Sticky inflation supports more RBNZ hikes - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-sticky-inflation-supports-more-rbnz-hikes-bbh-202607201155 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:55:32 Z
[14] Australian Dollar picks up above 0.7000 as risk aversion eases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-picks-up-above-07000-as-risk-aversion-eases-202607201152 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:52:44 Z
[15] Iran: Mediators propose 10-day cessation of strikes to revive US-Iran interim deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-mediators-propose-10-day-cessation-of-strikes-to-revive-us-iran-interim-deal-202607201151 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:51:52 Z
[16] Oil: Geopolitical shocks tighten crude and diesel markets - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-geopolitical-shocks-tighten-crude-and-diesel-markets-rabobank-202607201138 Published: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:38:04 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Egypt condemns Iran's attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain Time: 2026-07-20T12:37:47.498Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 142 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 14.2% of normal
- Throughput: 14.2% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost