Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-20 00:41:14 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 5.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- Headline: Night nine escalates hard, SPY welded to 742 put wall into Monday
- Stance: defensive | Drawdown Risk: elevated
- Generated: 2026-07-19T18:13:07-04:00 (accounts/fireworks/models/glm-5p2)
- [AI override: model drawdown_risk says elevated, validated composite band says low]
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, MSM, IEX
- Shorts: BKH, FHI
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 10% (n=225) | 3d 39% (n=219) | 5d 35% (n=204)
- Screener Board Record: 48 closed (hit rate 52%) Β· 108 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.49 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.17
- QQQ: $693.76 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.38
- IWM: $293.49 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $270.0
- VIX: 18.77 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.541%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.49 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $751.17 | Bearish | 2.62 |
| QQQ | $693.76 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $707.38 | Bearish | 4.96 |
| IWM | $293.49 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $270.00 | Bearish | 2.10 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.77 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| TNX | 45.41 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.21 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $366.46 | Neutral | 1.45 |
| DXY | 100.69 | 42.41 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $50.61 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $32.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.15B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 91.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 76.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.67 (5d: +5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $90.37 | Spread: $6.70
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.19/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.51
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.92 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.557 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.281 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.574 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 682,336.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 792,084.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $109.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $742.49)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.69
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,835B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,939B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,761B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,716 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +5.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $123.96 (vs 20d avg 111.32, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.52%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.7% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] Magnitude 5.5 earthquake strikes western Iran Time: 2026-07-20T04:00:44.838Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 142 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost