Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-18 06:00:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 8 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.453 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.51 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, gamma, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 8 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 8 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.453 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 65% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- Headline: Regime flips RISK-ON after hours, SPY still 1% below the flip
- Stance: defensive | Drawdown Risk: moderate
- Generated: 2026-07-17T18:46:11-04:00 (accounts/fireworks/models/glm-5p2)
- [AI override: model drawdown_risk says moderate, validated composite band says low]
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.49 | 50 SMA $744.38 | 200 SMA $696.69 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.09
- QQQ: $693.76 | 50 SMA $719.01 | 200 SMA $640.84 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.46
- IWM: $293.49 | 50 SMA $290.30 | 200 SMA $263.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $272.5
- VIX: 18.77 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.541%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.49 | 61.06 | 47.4 | $751.09 | Bearish | 5.67 |
| QQQ | $693.76 | 45.99 | 67.5 | $706.46 | Bearish | 6.66 |
| IWM | $293.49 | 37.68 | 0.9 | $272.50 | Bearish | 2.70 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.77 | 54.56 | 38.0 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| TNX | 45.41 | 69.88 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.21 | 45.46 | 29.0 | $367.59 | Bearish | 2.08 |
| DXY | 100.75 | 39.59 | 31.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $50.61 | 41.54 | 19.0 | $32.00 | Bearish | 3.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.15B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.37% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 91.0% | 61/67 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 44/54 |
| Utilities | 76.7% | 23/30 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 21/28 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 24/34 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 12/19 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 42/67 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 31/59 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 23/65 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.49 (5d: +5.6%)
- Brent Crude: $88.10 | Spread: $5.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $69.27/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.51
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.88 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.513 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.275 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.476 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $701.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $742.49)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.75
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,987B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,834B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,939B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,760B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,941 βΌ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +5.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $123.96 (vs 20d avg 110.84, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] SPY (744.14) dropped below ZGL (749.30) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (744.43) reclaimed ZGL (736.08) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=116600B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=116181B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.52%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.54 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.66 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.03 (β15.7% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Damage to Bandar Abbas-Rudan bridge after US strikes Time: 2026-07-18T09:43:07.261Z
[2] Iran says attack on desalination plant cuts drinking water to 20 villages Time: 2026-07-18T09:30:30.537Z
[3] Iran lawmaker calls for withdrawal from nuclear non-proliferation treaty Time: 2026-07-18T09:05:11.861Z
[BREAKING] [4] Kuwait says firefighters, worker injured tackling blaze after Iranian attack Time: 2026-07-18T08:56:45.633Z
[BREAKING] [5] Black smoke rises near Iran's Konarak Air Base Time: 2026-07-18T08:46:50.237Z
[6] Iran says indictments issued against Trump, Netanyahu over recent war Time: 2026-07-18T08:10:01.474Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 140 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 444
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost