Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-16 09:16:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.51 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.50 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 7.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- AI Read not available this cycle (brief unparsed).
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, MSM, IEX
- Shorts: FHI, ICE
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 10% (n=219) | 3d 44% (n=204) | 5d 35% (n=190)
- Screener Board Record: 36 closed (hit rate 58%) Β· 100 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $752.72 | 50 SMA $743.34 | 200 SMA $695.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $753.01
- QQQ: $711.67 | 50 SMA $718.07 | 200 SMA $639.81 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.85
- IWM: $294.51 | 50 SMA $289.71 | 200 SMA $262.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.586%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $752.72 | 68.13 | 54.2 | $753.01 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| QQQ | $711.67 | 52.68 | 75.2 | $716.85 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| IWM | $294.51 | 48.15 | 3.9 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.16 | 34.55 | 43.5 | $11.02 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| TNX | 45.86 | 67.74 | 36.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $366.39 | 55.91 | 31.0 | $370.97 | Bearish | 1.97 |
| DXY | 100.66 | 36.73 | 31.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $50.57 | 51.53 | 20.0 | $37.71 | Neutral | 1.31 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 73.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 51.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.46 (5d: +12.7%)
- Brent Crude: $85.85 | Spread: $5.39
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.34/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.50
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.836 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.509 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.499 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.492 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $653.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $752.72)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.66
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,847B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,944B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,753B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,049 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $121.38 (vs 20d avg 110.65, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.25, +1.8Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (751.81) dropped below ZGL (753.01) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=116181B
- [INFO] SPY (751.98) reclaimed ZGL (751.58) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core Retail Sales(MoM)(Jun): -0.2% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 1.0%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 208 vs Est. 216 (MISS) | Prev: 216
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(Jul): 41.4 vs Est. 12.7 (BEAT) | Prev: 10.3
- Retail Sales(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.2% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Business Inventories(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,805 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,821
- Pending Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Philly Fed Employment(Jul): 10.0 | Prev: 7.9
- Retail Control(MoM)(Jun): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.8%
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Gold slips below $4,000 as energy-driven inflation fears keep Fed rate hike bets in play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-as-energy-driven-inflation-fears-keep-fed-rate-hike-bets-in-play-202607161146 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:09:31 Z
[2] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $721.7B to $722.4B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-climbed-from-previous-7217b-to-7224b-202607161300 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:00:39 Z
[3] Natural gas: Storage challenge grows on LNG competition - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-storage-challenge-grows-on-lng-competition-ing-202607161258 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:58:17 Z
[4] British Pound: Fiscal tightrope shapes outlook - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fiscal-tightrope-shapes-outlook-ocbc-202607161248 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:48:15 Z
[5] British Pound eases against Yen after hitting highest level since 2007 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-eases-against-yen-after-hitting-highest-level-since-2007-202607161242 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:42:37 Z
[6] US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 208K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-208k-last-week-202607161238 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:38:08 Z
[7] United States Retail Sales rise 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-rise-02-in-june-to-7686-billion-202607161237 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:37:34 Z
[8] United States Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 6.7% in June from previous 6.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-yoy-declined-to-67-in-june-from-previous-69-202607161231 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:31:05 Z
[9] United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.805M, below expectations (1.82M) in July 3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-registered-at-1805m-below-expectations-182m-in-july-3-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:47 Z
[10] United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (-0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-ex-autos-mom-below-forecasts-01-in-june-actual-02-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:10 Z
[11] United States Retail Sales Control Group meets expectations (0.5%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-control-group-meets-expectations-05-in-june-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:09 Z
[12] United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above forecasts (13) in July: Actual (41.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-survey-above-forecasts-13-in-july-actual-414-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[13] United States Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-mom-meets-expectations-02-in-june-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[14] United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K below forecasts (217K) in July 10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-came-in-at-208k-below-forecasts-217k-in-july-10-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[15] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 214.25K in July 10 from previous 218.75K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-down-to-21425k-in-july-10-from-previous-21875k-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[16] US Dollar Index: Decline seen overdone - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-decline-seen-overdone-bbh-202607161230 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:01 Z
[17] Canadian Dollar: BoC hold and guidance shift - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-hold-and-guidance-shift-td-securities-202607161224 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:24:11 Z
[18] Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (258K) in June: Actual (239K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-housing-starts-sa-yoy-below-expectations-258k-in-june-actual-239k-202607161215 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:15:02 Z
[19] European Central Bank: Hawkish hold bias - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-hawkish-hold-bias-rabobank-202607161211 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:11:57 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 138 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost