Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-16 04:01:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.52 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 68 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 7.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- AI Read not available this cycle (brief unparsed).
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.96 | 50 SMA $742.65 | 200 SMA $695.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.0
- QQQ: $718.36 | 50 SMA $717.20 | 200 SMA $639.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $295.95 | 50 SMA $289.38 | 200 SMA $262.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.67 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.545%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.96 | 66.05 | 54.5 | $751.00 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $718.36 | 52.26 | 75.5 | $640.00 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| IWM | $295.95 | 48.38 | 5.8 | $250.00 | Neutral | 1.38 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.67 | 39.19 | 42.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 45.45 | 60.13 | 33.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.80 | 46.06 | 31.0 | $370.99 | Bearish | 1.69 |
| DXY | 100.50 | 31.06 | 31.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.26 | 42.50 | 20.1 | $37.82 | Neutral | 1.43 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 73.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 51.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.24 (5d: +11.3%)
- Brent Crude: $85.63 | Spread: $5.39
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.02/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.50
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.828 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.49 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.454 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.515 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.48
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,306,690.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,348,893.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $653.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $754.96)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,847B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,944B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,180 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.515 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $121.38 (vs 20d avg 110.65, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.25, +1.8Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=116181B
- [INFO] SPY (751.98) reclaimed ZGL (751.58) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (751.19) dropped below ZGL (751.63) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -1.692 vs Est. -1.800 (BEAT) | Prev: 2.998
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.3% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.6%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.1%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.430 | Prev: -0.052
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): 15.60 vs Est. 9.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 5.70
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] US Dollar: Disinflation meets Oil - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-disinflation-meets-oil-ocbc-202607160705 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 07:05:07 Z
[2] Canadian Dollar weakens as traders brace for US Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-as-traders-brace-for-us-retail-sales-data-202607160703 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 07:03:24 Z
[3] Forex Today: Majors stabilize as USD selloff loses steam URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-majors-stabilize-as-usd-selloff-loses-steam-202607160701 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 07:01:05 Z
[4] New Zealand Dollar holds gains around 0.5850, favoured by a softer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-gains-around-05850-favoured-by-a-softer-us-dollar-202607160655 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:55:58 Z
[5] Indian Rupee declines further as elevated oil prices renew foreign outflows risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-extends-decline-amid-elevated-oil-prices-202607160526 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:54:18 Z
[6] Gold struggles near daily low; seems vulnerable as Mideast tensions lift rate-hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-iran-tensions-fuel-inflation-risks-revive-fed-hike-bets-and-support-usd-202607160358 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:46:10 Z
[7] India: Semiconductor push and INR funding dynamics - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-semiconductor-push-and-inr-funding-dynamics-commerzbank-202607160644 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:44:38 Z
[8] Oil: Physical market tightens with Persian Gulf risks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-physical-market-tightens-with-persian-gulf-risks-ing-202607160628 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:28:13 Z
[9] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles to near $57 as inflation projections remain de-anchored URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-tumbles-to-near-57-as-inflation-projections-remain-de-anchored-202607160620 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:20:54 Z
[10] Early Q2 results reveal a highly robust earnings landscape URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/early-q2-results-reveal-a-highly-robust-earnings-landscape-202607160620 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:20:16 Z
[11] British Pound remains muted as UK monthly GDP rises 0.1%, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-muted-as-uk-monthly-gdp-rises-01-as-expected-202607160619 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:19:52 Z
[12] Euro: Bullish bias builds above key support against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-bullish-bias-builds-above-key-support-against-us-dollar-uob-202607160619 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:19:40 Z
[13] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar eases to 162.00, forming a triangle pattern URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-dollar-eases-to-16200-forming-a-triangle-pattern-202607160618 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:18:57 Z
[14] Euro remains firm against British Pound after UK growth data
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-firm-against-british-pound-after-uk-growth-data-202607160616
Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:16:57 Z
[15] United Kingdom Total Trade Balance increased to Β£-1.044B in May from previous Β£-8.435B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-trade-balance-increased-to-ps-1044b-in-may-from-previous-ps-8435b-202607160605 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:05:53 Z
[16] United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) above forecasts (0.6%) in May: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-index-of-services-3m-3m-above-forecasts-06-in-may-actual-07-202607160601 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:01:58 Z
[17] United Kingdom GDP grows by 0.1% MoM in May, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gdp-grows-by-01-mom-in-may-as-expected-202607160601 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:01:01 Z
[18] United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU up to Β£-7.14B in May from previous Β£-13.048B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-trade-balance-non-eu-up-to-ps-714b-in-may-from-previous-ps-13048b-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:09 Z
[19] United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at Β£-18.66B, above expectations (Β£-23.6B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-goods-trade-balance-came-in-at-ps-1866b-above-expectations-ps-236b-in-may-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:09 Z
[20] United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-industrial-production-mom-below-forecasts-01-in-may-actual-05-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:05 Z
[21] United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) above forecasts (1.9%) in May: Actual (2.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-manufacturing-production-yoy-above-forecasts-19-in-may-actual-23-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:05 Z
[22] United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-manufacturing-production-mom-came-in-at-01-above-forecasts-02-in-may-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:03 Z
[23] United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (1.2%) in May: Actual (1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-industrial-production-yoy-below-forecasts-12-in-may-actual-1-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:03 Z
[24] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-mom-meets-forecasts-01-in-may-202607160600 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:00:02 Z
[25] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD posts modest losses near 1.3535 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-posts-modest-losses-near-13535-202607160539 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:39:01 Z
[26] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Maintains constructive uptrend above 1.3500 despite mild losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-maintains-constructive-uptrend-above-13500-despite-mild-losses-202607160518 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:18:41 Z
[27] Asian stocks lean lower due to tech sell-off, rising US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-lean-lower-due-to-tech-sell-off-rising-us-iran-tensions-202607160518 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:18:27 Z
[28] WTI Price Forecast: Slips below $79.00; bullish bias persists amid US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-slips-below-7900-bullish-bias-persists-amid-us-iran-tensions-202607160510 Published: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:10:36 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Dubai entry fees for Iranian trading boats rise more than eightfold Time: 2026-07-16T07:33:38.850Z
[2] Bahrain says it intercepted fresh Iranian missile, drone attacks Time: 2026-07-16T07:31:09.514Z
[3] Tanker disabled by CENTCOM had carried 38 million barrels of Iranian oil, tracker says Time: 2026-07-16T07:25:52.409Z
[4] Iran army says neighbors not targets, warns US conflict could spread Time: 2026-07-16T06:55:02.493Z
[5] IRGC confirms attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait Time: 2026-07-16T06:16:41.032Z
[BREAKING] [6] Iran military warns US strikes on infrastructure would trigger attacks across region Time: 2026-07-16T06:08:52.217Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 138 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily β 41.7% of normal
- Throughput: 40.8% of normal (4.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 368
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS240 (+380% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost