Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-15 20:01:17 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.433 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 68 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.433; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- AI Read not available this cycle (brief unparsed).
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.96 | 50 SMA $742.65 | 200 SMA $695.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.0
- QQQ: $718.36 | 50 SMA $717.20 | 200 SMA $639.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $295.95 | 50 SMA $289.38 | 200 SMA $262.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.67 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.545%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.96 | 66.05 | 54.5 | $751.00 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $718.36 | 52.26 | 75.5 | $640.00 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| IWM | $295.95 | 48.38 | 5.8 | $250.00 | Neutral | 1.38 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.67 | 39.19 | 42.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 45.45 | 60.13 | 33.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.80 | 46.06 | 31.0 | $370.99 | Bearish | 1.69 |
| DXY | 100.50 | 31.06 | 31.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.26 | 42.50 | 20.1 | $37.82 | Neutral | 1.43 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.36B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 73.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 51.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.24 (5d: +11.3%)
- Brent Crude: $85.63 | Spread: $5.39
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.02/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.50
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.827 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.489 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.452 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.513 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.48
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,306,690.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,348,893.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $653.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $754 (Spot: $754.96)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,831B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,943B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,721 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $121.38 (vs 20d avg 110.64, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.24, +2.0Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: FTI β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 48% (n=1213)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: OHI β promotion-ready (43d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 52% (n=625)).
- [INFO] Screener: KIM β promotion-ready (43d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 53% (n=1897)).
- [INFO] Screener: KIM β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 53% (n=1897)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -1.692 vs Est. -1.800 (BEAT) | Prev: 2.998
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.3% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.6%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.1%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.430 | Prev: -0.052
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): 15.60 vs Est. 9.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 5.70
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] The Japanese Yen gets a gift from American inflation and hands it straight back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-gets-a-gift-from-american-inflation-and-hands-it-straight-back-202607152303 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 23:03:00 Z
[2] The Australian Dollar reclaims a big figure and immediately loses its nerve URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollar-reclaims-a-big-figure-and-immediately-loses-its-nerve-202607152302 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 23:02:06 Z
[3] The British Pound Sterling breaks out on the strength of someone else's weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-british-pound-sterling-breaks-out-on-the-strength-of-someone-elses-weakness-202607152301 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 23:01:07 Z
[4] South Korean Won: Watching 200dma and BoK - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-watching-200dma-and-bok-societe-generale-202607152247 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 22:47:00 Z
[5] Indonesia: Post-S&P optimism faces weak risk uptake - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-post-sp-optimism-faces-weak-risk-uptake-dbs-202607152203 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 22:03:00 Z
[6] Mexican Peso surges as inflation data weighs on the USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-surges-as-inflation-data-weighs-on-the-usd-202607152142 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:42:48 Z
[7] Stocks rise as inflation cools the Fed, but the chip rout keeps the rally honest URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stocks-rise-as-inflation-cools-the-fed-but-the-chip-rout-keeps-the-rally-honest-202607152123 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:23:01 Z
[8] China: production-led growth with weak demand - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-production-led-growth-with-weak-demand-bny-202607152122 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:22:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Dena Karari freed after detention in Iran, lawyer says Time: 2026-07-15T23:24:32.357Z
[2] Bahrain activates alarm sirens, urges public to seek shelter Time: 2026-07-15T23:13:39.533Z
[3] Israel Foreign Minister warns Iran and proxies threaten regional security Time: 2026-07-15T23:06:36.686Z
[4] Trump says Iran allowed detained US citizen to leave country Time: 2026-07-15T22:59:09.292Z
[5] IRGC says Iran's operations are focused on US military infrastructure Time: 2026-07-15T22:46:51.643Z
[6] Critics sought to 'tank' US-Iran negotiations, Vice President Vance says Time: 2026-07-15T22:40:23.881Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 137 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 12.1% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 150
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS240 (+380% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost