Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-15 14:20:18 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.433 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.98 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.47 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $79, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.433; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- AI Read not available this cycle (brief unparsed).
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.38 | 50 SMA $742.65 | 200 SMA $695.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $739.02
- QQQ: $717.77 | 50 SMA $717.20 | 200 SMA $639.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $295.77 | 50 SMA $289.38 | 200 SMA $262.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.545%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.38 | 66.05 | 54.5 | $739.02 | Neutral | 0.51 |
| QQQ | $717.77 | 52.26 | 75.5 | $640.00 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| IWM | $295.77 | 48.38 | 5.8 | $250.00 | Neutral | 1.42 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.72 | 39.19 | 42.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| TNX | 45.45 | 60.13 | 33.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $373.36 | 46.06 | 31.0 | $370.93 | Bearish | 1.61 |
| DXY | 100.41 | 30.14 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.53 | 42.50 | 20.1 | $52.68 | Neutral | 1.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.36B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 36.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $79.16 (5d: +9.8%)
- Brent Crude: $84.71 | Spread: $5.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.18
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.53
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.826 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.467 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.444 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.514 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,541,120.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,471,417.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.98 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $529.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $754.38)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.41
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,831B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,943B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,283 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.24, +2.0Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (751.98) reclaimed ZGL (751.58) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (751.19) dropped below ZGL (751.63) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=115717B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -1.692 vs Est. -1.800 (BEAT) | Prev: 2.998
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.3% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.6%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.1%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.430 | Prev: -0.052
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): 15.60 vs Est. 9.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 5.70
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] $4,000 under siege: Buyers losing the battle on Gold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-000-under-siege-buyers-losing-the-battle-on-gold-202607151803 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 18:03:31 Z
[2] Gold price slips as Iran escalation overshadows soft US PPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-slips-as-iran-escalation-overshadows-soft-us-ppi-202607151759 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 17:59:59 Z
[3] Euro elevates as softer US PPI weighs on the Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-elevates-as-softer-us-ppi-weighs-on-the-dollar-202607151747 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 17:47:33 Z
[4] Silver slips as hawkish Fed outlook persists despite soft US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-slips-as-hawkish-fed-outlook-persists-despite-soft-us-inflation-data-202607151743 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 17:43:51 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran executes 2022 protester, Aref Khoshkar- HRANA Time: 2026-07-15T18:06:53.157Z
[2] IRGC claims to have downed US drone over Bandar Abbas Time: 2026-07-15T17:53:35.024Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 137 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 39.0% of normal
- Throughput: 32.0% of normal (3.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost