Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-15 11:26:57 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.433 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.87 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $79, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.433; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- AI Read not available this cycle (brief unparsed).
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $753.15 | 50 SMA $742.65 | 200 SMA $695.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.35
- QQQ: $715.27 | 50 SMA $717.20 | 200 SMA $639.19 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $295.86 | 50 SMA $289.38 | 200 SMA $262.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.18 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.555%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $753.15 | 66.05 | 54.5 | $751.35 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| QQQ | $715.27 | 52.26 | 75.5 | $640.00 | Neutral | 1.49 |
| IWM | $295.86 | 48.38 | 5.8 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.54 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.18 | 39.19 | 42.3 | $11.07 | Neutral | 1.24 |
| TNX | 45.55 | 60.13 | 33.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.23 | 46.06 | 31.0 | $370.89 | Bearish | 1.95 |
| DXY | 100.75 | 38.61 | 31.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.13 | 42.50 | 20.1 | $52.79 | Bearish | 1.61 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.36B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 64
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 64.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 57.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $78.76 (5d: +9.3%)
- Brent Crude: $83.85 | Spread: $5.09
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.40/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.90
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.41
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.832 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.494 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.432 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.497 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,682,378.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,800,411.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $262.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $753.15)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.75
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,831B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,943B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,357 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.24, +2.0Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=115717B
- [INFO] SPY (750.90) reclaimed ZGL (750.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (750.30) dropped below ZGL (750.56) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.3% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.6%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.1%
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): 15.60 vs Est. 9.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 5.70
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 11.7%, above expectations (11.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-retail-sales-yoy-came-in-at-117-above-expectations-112-in-may-202607151500 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 15:00:04 Z
[2] BoC's Macklem: Canada Q2 is looking pretty solid URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-set-to-keep-interest-rates-steady-for-sixth-consecutive-meeting-202607150945 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:59:28 Z
[3] Fed Chair Warsh: One-time change in prices isn't necessarily inflationary URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-chair-warsh-one-time-change-in-prices-isnt-necessarily-inflationary-202607151455 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:55:22 Z
[4] Japanese Yen: Policy urgency and mixed data - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-urgency-and-mixed-data-bny-202607151451 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:51:02 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar shows little reaction to Bank of Canada interest rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-shows-little-reaction-to-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-202607151433 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:33:40 Z
[6] Euro: Energy risks cap upside against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-energy-risks-cap-upside-against-us-dollar-ing-202607151431 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:31:24 Z
[7] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -1.693M, above forecasts (-2.6M) in July 10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-came-in-at-1693m-above-forecasts-26m-in-july-10-202607151430 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:30:02 Z
[8] Fed's Williams: June CPI consistent with progress on inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-june-cpi-consistent-with-progress-on-inflation-202607151429 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:29:47 Z
[9] Australian Dollar rises amid softer US PPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-amid-softer-us-ppi-202607151425 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:25:42 Z
[10] US Dollar: Limited downside after CPI - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-limited-downside-after-cpi-bbh-202607151414 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:14:35 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran lawmakers vow to carry out Khamenei's call for revenge Time: 2026-07-15T15:01:30.532Z
[2] Iran's Ghalibaf to issue statement on war developments Time: 2026-07-15T14:56:51.716Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 137 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 19 of 60 normal daily β 21.6% of normal
- Throughput: 21.4% of normal (2.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS137 (+174% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost