Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-15 09:16:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.433 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.50 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.80 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.538 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.433; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
AI Read
- Headline: Fragility cleared overnight, SPY 753 above the flip but US just lit up Iran again
- Stance: constructive | Drawdown Risk: low
- Generated: 2026-07-15T08:31:04-04:00 (glm-5.2)
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DTM, MSM, IEX
- Shorts: FHI, ICE
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 11% (n=212) | 3d 40% (n=197) | 5d 38% (n=183)
- Screener Board Record: 30 closed (hit rate 60%) Β· 96 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $753.72 | 50 SMA $742.65 | 200 SMA $695.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.25
- QQQ: $723.62 | 50 SMA $717.20 | 200 SMA $639.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $295.27 | 50 SMA $289.38 | 200 SMA $262.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.18 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.569%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $753.72 | 66.05 | 54.5 | $751.25 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| QQQ | $723.62 | 52.26 | 75.5 | $640.00 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| IWM | $295.27 | 48.38 | 5.8 | $250.00 | Bearish | 2.41 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.18 | 39.19 | 42.3 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| TNX | 45.69 | 60.13 | 33.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.80 | 46.06 | 31.0 | $370.94 | Bearish | 1.85 |
| DXY | 100.80 | 39.28 | 30.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.89 | 42.50 | 20.1 | $35.00 | Neutral | 1.17 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.36B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 64
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 64.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 57.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $79.70 (5d: +10.6%)
- Brent Crude: $84.84 | Spread: $5.14
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.30/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.836 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.502 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.454 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.495 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $97.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $753.72)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.80
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,831B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,943B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,341 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% (vs 20d avg 2.24, +2.0Ο), floor 2.0% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=115717B
- [INFO] SPY (750.90) reclaimed ZGL (750.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (750.30) dropped below ZGL (750.56) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.3% vs Est. 0.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.6%
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.1%
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): 15.60 vs Est. 9.30 (BEAT) | Prev: 5.70
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] United Kingdom: Market-friendly chancellor prospects - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-market-friendly-chancellor-prospects-td-securities-202607151259 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:59:25 Z
[2] Euro weakens against British Pound as Bank of England rate hike bets rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-against-british-pound-as-bank-of-england-rate-hike-bets-rise-202607151259 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:59:24 Z
[3] United States annual producer inflation drops to 5.5% in June vs. 6.2% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-annual-producer-inflation-drops-to-55-in-june-vs-62-expected-202607151241 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:41:17 Z
[4] China: Growth outlook steady with policy support - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-growth-outlook-steady-with-policy-support-standard-chartered-202607151241 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:41:03 Z
[5] United States Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 5.5%, below expectations (6.2%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-55-below-expectations-62-in-june-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[6] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below forecasts (5.2%) in June: Actual (4.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-yoy-below-forecasts-52-in-june-actual-47-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[7] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in June: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-mom-below-forecasts-04-in-june-actual-02-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[8] United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0%) in June: Actual (-0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-0-in-june-actual-03-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[9] Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.7%) in May: Actual (0%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-wholesale-sales-mom-above-forecasts-07-in-may-actual-0-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:05 Z
[10] United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 15.6, above expectations (8.8) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index-came-in-at-156-above-expectations-88-in-july-202607151230 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:30:01 Z
[11] Canadian Dollar: Tentative flow reversal before BoC - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-tentative-flow-reversal-before-boc-bny-202607151226 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:26:21 Z
[12] BoC expected to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation pressures remain contained URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-set-to-keep-interest-rates-steady-for-sixth-consecutive-meeting-202607150945 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:15:00 Z
[13] Norwegian Krone: Softer inflation but Norges Bank still hawkish - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-softer-inflation-but-norges-bank-still-hawkish-bbh-202607151211 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:11:01 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 137 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.8% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS115 (+130% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost