Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-15 00:01:05 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.433 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.92 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.36% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.43 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.433) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.433; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $753.10 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $750.49
- QQQ: $722.06 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $294.90 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.50 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.585%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $753.10 | 53.68 | 61.9 | $750.49 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| QQQ | $722.06 | 41.27 | 82.8 | $640.00 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $294.90 | 41.24 | 30.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 2.70 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.50 | 38.41 | 45.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| TNX | 45.85 | 61.21 | 45.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.50 | 37.13 | 35.1 | $366.56 | Bearish | 2.32 |
| DXY | 100.81 | 39.39 | 30.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.18 | 32.45 | 22.8 | $35.00 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.433
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.36B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.21 (5d: +9.1%)
- Brent Crude: $85.89 | Spread: $5.68
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.63/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.815 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.491 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.421 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.427 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,862,324.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,558,069.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $557.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $752 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $753.10)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.58%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.81
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,830B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,945B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,740 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=115717B
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.36% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $60.63/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $120.17 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.90) reclaimed ZGL (750.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (750.30) dropped below ZGL (750.56) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- PPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jul): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] China's NBS: The economy remains resilient despite Q2 slowdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-nbs-the-economy-remains-resilient-despite-q2-slowdown-202607150300 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 03:00:05 Z
[2] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Remains near the symmetrical triangle top around 185.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-remains-near-the-symmetrical-triangle-top-around-18550-202607150254 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:54:29 Z
[3] US CENTCOM says it ends latest round of strikes targeting Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-centcom-says-it-ends-latest-round-of-strikes-targeting-iran-202607150249 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:49:02 Z
[4] New Zealand Dollar remains firm above 0.5800 despite weak China GDP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-remains-firm-above-05800-despite-weak-china-gdp-data-202607150228 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:28:14 Z
[5] Australian Dollar remains stronger following China's economic data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-stronger-following-chinas-economic-data-202607150214 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:14:45 Z
[6] Iran's IRGC: Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the 'end of America's evils' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-strait-of-hormuz-will-remain-closed-until-the-end-of-americas-evils-202607150210 Published: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 02:10:24 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Trump holds Situation Room meeting on possible wider Iran offensive - Axios Time: 2026-07-15T02:57:36.170Z
[2] IRGC says it struck US aircraft shelters at Jordan's Azraq base Time: 2026-07-15T02:36:26.548Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 137 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 57.0% of normal
- Throughput: 27.2% of normal (2.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost