Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 20:01:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.92 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.47 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.44 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.91 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $750.49
- QQQ: $719.65 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $640.0
- IWM: $294.46 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.50 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.585%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.91 | 53.68 | 61.9 | $750.49 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| QQQ | $719.65 | 41.27 | 82.8 | $640.00 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $294.46 | 41.24 | 30.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 2.69 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.50 | 38.41 | 45.4 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| TNX | 45.85 | 61.21 | 45.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.86 | 37.13 | 35.1 | $366.54 | Bearish | 2.32 |
| DXY | 100.94 | 41.25 | 27.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.10 | 32.45 | 22.8 | $35.00 | Neutral | 1.17 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 70.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 51.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $79.83 (5d: +8.6%)
- Brent Crude: $85.34 | Spread: $5.51
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.75/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.815 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.468 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.404 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.442 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,860,856.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,557,851.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $557.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $752 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $751.91)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.58%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.94
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,839B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,951B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,973 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $59.75/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $120.17 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: KDP β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 48% (n=1172)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] SPY (750.90) reclaimed ZGL (750.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (750.30) dropped below ZGL (750.56) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(Jun): -0.4% vs Est. -0.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- CPI(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 4.2%
- Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): 0.0% vs Est. 0.2% (MISS) | Prev: 0.2%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 19.80 | Prev: 21.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.056 vs Est. -2.700 (BEAT) | Prev: -0.399
- Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): 2.6% vs Est. 2.8% (MISS) | Prev: 2.9%
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): 232.7 vs Est. 128.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 104.8
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.48 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] South Korea Unemployment Rate declined to 2.7% in June from previous 2.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-unemployment-rate-declined-to-27-in-june-from-previous-28-202607142300 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 23:00:00 Z
[2] New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to -1.4% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-electronic-card-retail-sales-mom-fell-from-previous-17-to-14-in-june-202607142245 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:45:01 Z
[3] New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): 1.3% (June) vs previous 3.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-electronic-card-retail-sales-yoy-13-june-vs-previous-33-202607142245 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:45:01 Z
[4] China: Fiscal support set to re-accelerate - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-fiscal-support-set-to-re-accelerate-standard-chartered-202607142238 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:38:00 Z
[5] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Advance stalls at SMA clusters, bulls eye 0.59 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-advance-stalls-at-sma-clusters-bulls-eye-059-202607142235 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:35:28 Z
[6] The softest US inflation print in six years buys British Pound Sterling about four hours URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-softest-us-inflation-print-in-six-years-buys-british-pound-sterling-about-four-hours-202607142210 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:10:20 Z
[7] Indonesian Rupiah: S&P support offset by Rupiah headwinds - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-sp-support-offset-by-rupiah-headwinds-commerzbank-202607142156 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 21:56:00 Z
[8] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Hold above 217.00, next target is 218.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-hold-above-21700-next-target-is-21800-202607142132 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 21:32:58 Z
[9] Chinese Yuan: Range consolidation holds against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-range-consolidation-holds-against-us-dollar-uob-202607142112 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 21:12:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran targeted seven commercial ships in past week, CENTCOM commander says Time: 2026-07-14T23:21:54.889Z
[2] US freezes over $130 million in Iran-linked crypto wallets, Bessent says Time: 2026-07-14T23:02:03.160Z
[3] Iran says it will not seek talks with US after MoU breakdown Time: 2026-07-14T22:55:11.083Z
[4] Failed talks with US leave 'force' as the only option, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-14T22:40:37.210Z
[5] Strikes on Iran will continue until I decide to stop, Trump says Time: 2026-07-14T22:13:09.124Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 28.2% of normal (2.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS315 (+530% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost