Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 00:01:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.79 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.27 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $80, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.13 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.94
- QQQ: $710.65 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.94
- IWM: $292.95 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 17.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.609%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.13 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $751.94 | Neutral | 1.50 |
| QQQ | $710.65 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $720.94 | Bearish | 2.85 |
| IWM | $292.95 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $250.00 | Bearish | 4.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.16 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| TNX | 46.09 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.21 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.98 | Bearish | 5.68 |
| DXY | 101.22 | 53.78 | 24.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.07 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $36.00 | Bearish | 1.86 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $79.60 (5d: +13.0%)
- Brent Crude: $84.53 | Spread: $4.93
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.787 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.272 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.508 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.77
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,954,726.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,378.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $748.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.22
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,940B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,719B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,512 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.32/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): β³ Pending
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Gold bounces off two-week low as USD bulls turn cautious ahead of US CPI, Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bounces-off-two-week-low-as-usd-bulls-turn-cautious-ahead-of-us-cpi-feds-warsh-202607140350 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:50:46 Z
[2] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 0.6950 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-tests-nine-day-ema-barrier-near-06950-202607140347 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:47:40 Z
[3] China's June Trade Balance: Surplus widens sharply amid strong exports URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-june-trade-balance-surplus-widens-sharply-amid-strong-exports-202607140307 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:07:58 Z
[4] United States Dollar Index declines despite rising safe-haven demand, Fed rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-declines-despite-rising-safe-haven-demand-fed-rate-hike-odds-202607140302 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:02:46 Z
[5] China Trade Balance CNY climbed from previous 723.98B to 859.05B in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-trade-balance-cny-climbed-from-previous-72398b-to-85905b-in-june-202607140301 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:01:01 Z
[6] China Trade Balance USD above forecasts ($121B) in June: Actual ($125.62B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-trade-balance-usd-above-forecasts-121b-in-june-actual-12562b-202607140300 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:00:57 Z
[7] China Exports (YoY) CNY increased to 20.8% in June from previous 13.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-exports-yoy-cny-increased-to-208-in-june-from-previous-138-202607140300 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:00:43 Z
[8] China Imports (YoY) came in at 36%, above expectations (24%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-imports-yoy-came-in-at-36-above-expectations-24-in-june-202607140300 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:00:25 Z
[9] China Exports (YoY) above expectations (18.2%) in June: Actual (27%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-exports-yoy-above-expectations-182-in-june-actual-27-202607140300 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:00:16 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Missile hits Iranian Kurdish opposition site in northern Iraq - Reuters Time: 2026-07-14T03:40:36.328Z
[2] Iran risks its most valuable Arab partner over Hormuz Time: 2026-07-14T03:12:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 39.0% of normal
- Throughput: 37.9% of normal (3.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS294 (+488% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost