Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 22:01:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.438 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.27 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $78, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.438 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.78 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.94
- QQQ: $711.70 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.94
- IWM: $293.23 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.84
- VIX: 17.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.609%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.78 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $751.94 | Neutral | 1.50 |
| QQQ | $711.70 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $720.94 | Bearish | 2.84 |
| IWM | $293.23 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $294.84 | Bearish | 4.27 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.16 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.24 |
| TNX | 46.09 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.44 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.98 | Bearish | 5.67 |
| DXY | 101.28 | 54.68 | 24.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.13 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $53.22 | Bearish | 1.86 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $78.00 (5d: +10.7%)
- Brent Crude: $83.18 | Spread: $5.18
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.52/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.772 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.364 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.266 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.49 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.77
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,953,872.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,092.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $748.78)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.28
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,813B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,711B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,414 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.52/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (749.65) reclaimed ZGL (743.03) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): -120.0 vs Est. -135.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -293.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Japanese Yen consolidates as USD bulls look to US CPI and Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-consolidates-as-usd-bulls-look-to-us-cpi-and-feds-warsh-202607140158 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:58:27 Z
[2] Japan's Katayama: Sharp shift in asset management environment could prompt review of GPIF portfolio URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-sharp-shift-in-asset-management-environment-could-prompt-review-of-gpif-portfolio-202607140143 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:43:55 Z
[3] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions remains unchanged at 3 in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-conditions-remains-unchanged-at-3-in-june-202607140130 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:30:01 Z
[4] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence up to -5 in June from previous -14 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-confidence-up-to-5-in-june-from-previous-14-202607140130 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:30:00 Z
[5] Euro posts modest gains above 1.1350 as traders await US CPI inflation release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-posts-modest-gains-above-11350-as-traders-await-us-cpi-inflation-release-202607140129 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:29:45 Z
[6] Canadian Dollar gains on higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-on-higher-oil-prices-202607140126 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:26:44 Z
[7] New Zealand Dollar rallies as RBNZ's Conway fuels rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rallies-as-rbnzs-conway-fuels-rate-hike-bets-202607140119 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:19:41 Z
[8] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7990 vs. 6.7972 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67990-vs-67972-previous-202607140115 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:15:26 Z
[9] WTI spikes amid escalating Middle East Tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-spikes-amid-escalating-middle-east-tensions-202607140050 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:50:06 Z
[10] Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose from previous -2.9% to 83.9% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-westpac-consumer-confidence-rose-from-previous-29-to-839-in-july-202607140035 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:35:51 Z
[11] Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.6900 as US launches more strikes against Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-weakens-to-near-06900-as-us-launches-more-strikes-against-iran-202607140028 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:28:53 Z
[12] Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (1.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-gross-domestic-product-qoq-in-line-with-expectations-11-in-2q-202607140005 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:05:54 Z
[13] Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 5.7% above expectations (5.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-gross-domestic-product-yoy-registered-at-57-above-expectations-55-in-2q-202607140000 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:07 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] IRGC claims it struck two 'rogue' supertankers Time: 2026-07-14T01:36:14.542Z
[2] Democratic senator seeks new Senate vote to end Iran war Time: 2026-07-14T01:29:59.629Z
[3] Oil climbs further as renewed US-Iran fighting rattles markets Time: 2026-07-14T00:47:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 21 of 60 normal daily β 35.0% of normal
- Throughput: 35.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.4 billion/day economic cost