Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 20:01:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.27 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $78, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.78 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.94
- QQQ: $711.70 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.94
- IWM: $293.23 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.84
- VIX: 17.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.609%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.78 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $751.94 | Neutral | 1.50 |
| QQQ | $711.70 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $720.94 | Bearish | 2.84 |
| IWM | $293.23 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $294.84 | Bearish | 4.27 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.16 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.24 |
| TNX | 46.09 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.44 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.98 | Bearish | 5.67 |
| DXY | 101.28 | 54.68 | 24.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.13 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $53.22 | Bearish | 1.86 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $78.00 (5d: +10.7%)
- Brent Crude: $83.18 | Spread: $5.18
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.52/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.772 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.364 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.266 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.49 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.77
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,953,872.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,092.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $748.78)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.28
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,813B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,711B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,268 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 66%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.52/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: GEV β promotion-ready (39d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 48% (n=1108)).
- [INFO] Screener: LNTH β promotion-ready (41d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 53% (n=1751)).
- [WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): -120.0 vs Est. -135.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -293.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Iranian missiles hit two UAE tankers in Hormuz -- Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iranian-missiles-hit-two-uae-tankers-in-hormuz-reuters-202607132334 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 23:34:23 Z
[2] Gold tumbles below $4,000 on Trump's Iran port blockade move, US CPI data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-tumbles-below-4-000-on-trumps-iran-port-blockade-move-us-cpi-data-looms-202607132325 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 23:25:58 Z
[3] RBNZ's Conway: Inflation to return to 2% over medium term URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnzs-conway-inflation-to-return-to-2-over-medium-term-202607132309 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 23:09:36 Z
[4] China: Prolonged stagnation path - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-prolonged-stagnation-path-commerzbank-202607132247 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 22:47:00 Z
[5] Malaysian Ringgit: Johor result keeps policy continuity - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysian-ringgit-johor-result-keeps-policy-continuity-ocbc-202607132247 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 22:47:00 Z
[6] Malaysian Ringgit: Johor result keeps policy continuity - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysian-ringgit-johor-result-keeps-policy-continuity-ocbc-202607132202 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 22:02:00 Z
[7] New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ): 8% (2Q) vs -4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-nzier-business-confidence-qoq-8-2q-vs-4-202607132200 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 22:00:02 Z
[8] British Pound Sterling buckles as Trump builds the Hormuz toll booth he swore would never exist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-buckles-as-trump-builds-the-hormuz-toll-booth-he-swore-would-never-exist-202607132158 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 21:58:58 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Sirens sound in Bahrain amid unconfirmed reports of strike near US Fifth Fleet Time: 2026-07-13T23:52:26.797Z
[2] US Embassy in UAE cancels consular appointments Time: 2026-07-13T23:26:53.366Z
[3] Trump backs Saudi military action against Houthis -- Axios Time: 2026-07-13T23:08:10.259Z
[4] Trump says Iran broke deal reached after 11-hour meeting Time: 2026-07-13T23:01:11.642Z
[5] Video appears to show US strikes on southeastern Iran Time: 2026-07-13T22:38:24.929Z
[6] UAE says two tankers targeted by Iranian cruise missiles Time: 2026-07-13T22:26:08.146Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost