Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 16:07:07 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.31% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.76 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.26 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $78, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $749.05 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $752.23
QQQ: $711.90 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.98
IWM: $293.33 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.89
VIX: 17.11 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.609%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$749.05	56.67	68.0	$752.23	Bearish	1.63
QQQ	$711.90	44.56	83.1	$712.98	Bearish	2.27
IWM	$293.33	50.74	31.7	$294.89	Bearish	4.06

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.11	38.89	39.4	$10.50	Neutral	1.16
TNX	46.09	62.72	42.8	-	-	-
GLD	$367.34	41.64	40.0	$366.00	Bearish	5.34
DXY	101.28	54.79	24.8	-	-	-
SLV	$52.18	34.59	22.3	$40.50	Bearish	1.73

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.96%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	88.9%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Materials	50.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	47.5%	0/0
Energy	47.4%	0/0
Technology	46.2%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $77.66 (5d: +10.2%)
Brent Crude: $82.89 | Spread: $5.23
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.44/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $56.75
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.764	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.356	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.26	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.473	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,923,357.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,384,007.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $622.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $749 (Spot: $749.05)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.61%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
DXY: 101.28
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,814B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,936B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,711B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,185 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.44/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (749.65) reclaimed ZGL (743.03) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.55%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Federal Budget Balance(Jun): -120.0 vs Est. -135.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -293.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (↑7.5% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (↑5.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (3):

[1] Taiwan: AI cycle and 2H outlook - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/taiwan-ai-cycle-and-2h-outlook-dbs-202607131956 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 19:56:00 Z

[2] Malaysian Ringgit: Stable as BNM holds rates - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysian-ringgit-stable-as-bnm-holds-rates-commerzbank-202607131923 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 19:23:00 Z

[3] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds below 200-day, bears target 0.5700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-holds-below-200-day-bears-target-05700-202607131909 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 19:09:15 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] US missions in UAE cancel consular appointments amid regional security concerns Time: 2026-07-13T19:59:38.028Z

[2] Iran state broadcaster denies reports of explosions in Bandar Abbas, Larak Time: 2026-07-13T19:56:18.164Z

[3] Sound of four missile impacts heard near Konarak - IRNA Time: 2026-07-13T19:51:17.068Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 36.7% of normal
Throughput: 34.9% of normal (3.6M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $12.5 billion/day economic cost