Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 12:54:17 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.25 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.43 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 68% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $749.67 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $752.29
- QQQ: $713.02 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.89
- IWM: $293.53 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 16.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.616%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $749.67 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $752.29 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $713.02 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $720.89 | Bearish | 2.18 |
| IWM | $293.53 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $250.00 | Bearish | 3.98 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.72 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| TNX | 46.16 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $366.50 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.98 | Bearish | 5.76 |
| DXY | 101.22 | 53.78 | 24.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.03 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $40.50 | Bearish | 1.77 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $75.17 (5d: +6.7%)
- Brent Crude: $80.07 | Spread: $4.90
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.97/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.60
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.47
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.775 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.337 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.252 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.43 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,354,226.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,822,273.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $388.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $755 (Spot: $749.67)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.22
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,821B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,940B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,722B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,495 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.97/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $114.92 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (750.62) dropped below ZGL (752.35) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (752.35) reclaimed ZGL (752.24) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Pezeshkian urges faster implementation of Iran-Russia agreements Time: 2026-07-13T16:36:34.587Z
[2] UN shipping agency rejects Hormuz transit fees after Trump post Time: 2026-07-13T16:32:53.014Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 35.0% of normal
- Throughput: 39.0% of normal (4.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost